EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

This system so straddles the border on a T6.5 and a T7.0. Constraints allow a T7.0 I think.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

STUNNING. Looks definitely like a category 5.



Reminds me of Halong earlier this year.

[Yellow Evan]

Almost near its peak, but IMO not there yet.

Looking at it now, I'd go with 7.0. I suspect we'll get one 6.5 and one 7.0.

[WeatherGuesser]

Grab from GoogleEarth. (Poor little pipsqueak Karina up there in the left corner)


post images

[mrbagyo]

TXPZ29 KNES 241217
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 24/1200Z

C. 16.1N

D. 110.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH WMG EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT-6.5. MET=6.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
DEVELOPING TO 2.0/18 HOURS WITH 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT=6.5.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

2014AUG24 100000 5.9 945.3 112.4 5.9 6.2 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -24.36 -77.76 EYE 13 IR N/A 15.99 110.34 COMBO GOES15 33.9
2014AUG24 103000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -4.06 -77.88 EYE 15 IR N/A 16.02 110.43 COMBO GOES15 33.8
2014AUG24 110000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 7.44 -78.02 EYE 16 IR N/A 16.04 110.62 COMBO GOES15 33.7
2014AUG24 113000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 12.24 -77.74 EYE 16 IR N/A 16.07 110.71 COMBO GOES15 33.6
2014AUG24 120000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.3 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 14.54 -77.54 EYE 17 IR N/A 16.10 110.80 COMBO GOES15 33.5

central temp now at 14.54 . That's a huge jump for a 2 hour period.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the constrains only allow to 6.5, I'd go with 130-135 knts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would have to agree with Yellow Evan, making Marie (so far) the second strongest in the ePac this year.

[Yellow Evan]

I would have to agree with Yellow Evan, making Marie (so far) the second strongest in the ePac this year.

If they go 130 knts, it'd get second place since this storm was bigger than Cristina. If they go 135 knts, it'd probs beat out Amanda in terms of pressure.

[Yellow Evan]

130 it is.

EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[cycloneye]

Stellar is the word. When the visible images come it will be fabulous.

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, 929 mbar makes this the most intense storm of the season, beating out Amanda's 135/932.

[Yellow Evan]

Also of note: Marie is the strongest EPAC storm since Dora 11, which was 135/929. Tied for strongest since Celia 10, which was 140/921.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^It is forecast to be 135 knots, and could Marie's pressure will be even lower. Will the NHC forecast category 5 this time?

[Yellow Evan]

^It is forecast to be 135 knots, and could Marie's pressure will be even lower. Will the NHC forecast category 5 this time?

They might, but tbh, it would not shock me if it falls short. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

13E MARIE 140824 1200 16.1N 110.8W EPAC 130 929

Equivalent to a Category 4 Super Typhoon!

[euro6208]

2014AUG24 123000 6.2 938.6 119.8 6.2 6.3 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 12.64 -77.61 EYE 17 IR N/A 16.02 111.00 COMBO GOES15 33.3

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix way off and raw is still at 7.0



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 16:05:49 N Lon : 110:48:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.9mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[euro6208]

What a fitting end to this active parade of storms for the epac before it slows down...a Cat 4 beast!

[Hurricane_Luis]

When is the next Advisory from the NHC?

[Equilibrium]