EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#481 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:52 am

euro6208 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
euro6208 wrote:How many storms in the epac has reached 7.0 or higher?


Tons.

During the EPHC era, a couple probs earned 7.0 but were kept as a high-end Cat 4.


If Marie becomes a Cat 5, What would be it's ranking? like how many Cat 5's have there been before Marie...


It would be Cat 5 #15. Officially, there were 14 before Marie.
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#482 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:53 am

ADT rising ever so slowly.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 16:03:08 N Lon : 111:05:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +11.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.2 degrees
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#483 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:57 am

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 130 140 146 147 147 138 120 102 83 65 48 33 22
V (KT) LAND 130 140 146 147 147 138 120 102 83 65 48 33 22
V (KT) LGE mod 130 138 138 135 131 120 107 92 77 64 52 41 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 9 12 8 6 11 18 12 13 8 7 5 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 1 -2 0 0 0 0 8 4
SHEAR DIR 3 22 27 34 5 7 29 30 354 322 328 281 253
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.6 27.3 26.2 25.2 23.8 22.5 21.9 22.0
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#484 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:58 am

Yellow Evan wrote:It would be Cat 5 #15. Officially, there were 14 before Marie.



Wow interesting stats...Honestly that is kinda low to me given this is the 2nd most active basin in the world...
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#485 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:00 am

euro6208 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:It would be Cat 5 #15. Officially, there were 14 before Marie.



Wow interesting stats...Honestly that is kinda low to me given this is the 2nd most active basin in the world...


Well, HURDAT only goes back to 1949. And intensity estimates from the 50's and 60's were very low. Furthermore, the 70s and 80s, the EPHC was very conservative with intensity storms and likely preformed Dvorak poorly. One system in particular (Max 87) got a 7.0, yet was still not upgraded.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#486 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:01 am

GOOD MORNING!!!
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#487 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:01 am

Note=Any saved images being posted in the next few hours will be posted also at the first post of thread to have a good archieve of images of this beauty.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#488 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:02 am



Oh my goodness, she's definitely a morning person. Beauty, stunned, gorgeous, insert_ adjective
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#489 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:04 am

mrbagyo,your visible image is now also at the first post of thread to have a good archieve of images.
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#490 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:05 am

Angled view this dawn. What a beautiful eye. :eek:
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#491 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:07 am

Looking at it now, I'd def go with 135 knts rather than 130 knts.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#492 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:18 am

14:00 UTC:

Image
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#493 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:24 am

Going on the southern end of the forecast cone...
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Re:

#494 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:25 am

weathernerdguy wrote:Going on the southern end of the forecast cone...


That may keep it over warmer SST's then.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#495 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:27 am

Latest microwave shows no signs of weakening

Image

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#496 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:29 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 15:58:51 N Lon : 111:10:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees
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#497 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:31 am

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 15m

NHC set 12z intensity of Hurricane Marie at 130-knots. I'd put 15z advisory at 140-knots and increase max forecast to 150-knots.
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#498 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:34 am

Adv should be out shortly. Is Marie a Cat 5?
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#499 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:34 am

supercane4867 wrote:Latest microwave shows no signs of weakening

Image

Image

Good thing there is no clue of a Eyewall Replacement Cycle that could be occurring for a storm like this.
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#500 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:35 am

One thing: THIS is a historic storm.
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