EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[weathernerdguy]

One thing: THIS is a historic storm.

Could you please tell me how?

[Yellow Evan]

Not quite historic. If it hits 150 knts or so, then yes.

Still epic though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One thing: THIS is a historic storm.

Could you please tell me how?

First, I might be exaggerating right now.

Second, its satellite presentation is one of the best I have seen in this basin.

Lastly, it has a possibility of reaching 150 kt winds.

FINE, impressive.

[weathernerdguy]

One thing: THIS is a historic storm.

Could you please tell me how?

First, I might be exaggerating right now.

Second, its satellite presentation is one of the best I have seen in this basin.

Lastly, it has a possibility of reaching 150 kt winds.

Thank you.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eagerly waiting for the NHC advisory and discussion for Hurricane MARIE.

[Ntxw]

Epic, historic, doesnt matter what word we use she is up there and looks about as good as any EPAC storm I have seen with Rick.

euro said it best, tis a wpac STY in the EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
1500 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 111.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 170SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 190SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 210SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 170SE 170SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 111.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[weathernerdguy]

130 knots

[cycloneye]

130kts at advisory and 140kts at peak.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours,
with very cold convective tops surrounding the center. As a
result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both
were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of
T6.5/127 kt. Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU
pass was 126 kt. Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is
raised to 130 kt.

The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has
actually been moving more westward during the past few hours. The
hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which
extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature
should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4
days. Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening
ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge
leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to
turn north-northwestward by day 5. There is very little spread
among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially
lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model
consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.

Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like
Marie get this strong. Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or
an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment
around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening
during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, slow weakening is likely
until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over
waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass. The new NHC
intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to
account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no
significant changes were required.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. These swells will cause dangerous
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

The evidence only really supports that much sadly. 140 knt forecast peak though. Only 4th time an EPAC storm forecast to reach such.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...MIGHTY MARIE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 111.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255
MILES...405 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW

FORECAST WIND
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 16:00:36 N Lon : 111:16:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees

[supercane4867]

Expect an upgrade to Cat.5 at 2PM

[Ntxw]

Looking at WV loop her eye is clear

[hurricanes1234]

I think the only inhibiting factor right now could be possible inner core changes in the near future. Barring that, however, I'd say a Category 5 is likely. It will be my first ever tracking!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2PM in that time is what time in UTC? (

[Yellow Evan]

2PM in that time is what time in UTC? (

2100z.

[RL3AO]

Clear as day T7.0 Obviously constraints are the issue as NHC mentioned. Constrains will allow a FT of 7.0 for the next advisory. If it can maintain until then, NHC can go 140...