EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane_Luis]

Marie is a very good looking lady!

[supercane4867]

Very intense

[Yellow Evan]

Banding isn't very pretty. CDO is as good as Haiyan.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 15:57:27 N Lon : 111:32:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.1mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.9 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.8 degrees

[euro6208]

2014AUG24 163000 6.9 921.5 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.74 -75.49 EYE 19 IR 82.9 15.87 111.63 COMBO GOES15 32.6

Even higher using ADT...

[supercane4867]

[euro6208]

Interesting...No mention of this in the latest Wunderblog at weather underground. Half page devoted to Cristobal...

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting...No mention of this in the latest Wunderblog at weather underground. Half page devoted to Cristobal...

Well to be fair, Jeff Masters is on vacation and there is a sub doing the blog.

[supercane4867]

Interesting...No mention of this in the latest Wunderblog at weather underground...

A disorganized TS in the Atlantic is about to curve out to sea, what an epic event

[cycloneye]

Interesting...No mention of this in the latest Wunderblog at weather underground. Half page devoted to Cristobal...

That is why Storm2k is the best as we have forums for every basin and all is conducted smoothly not like WU where there are trolls rolling around. Now back to Marie.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 15:52:03 N Lon : 111:37:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 931.8mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.1 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.6 degrees

[SouthDadeFish]

A beautiful, large storm:



Check out how symmetric the CDO is becoming.

[mrbagyo]

[supercane4867]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE MARIE
Sunday 24aug14 Time: 1158 UTC
Latitude: 15.87 Longitude: -110.98
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 926 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 143 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye is as warm as it's ever been, but central convection has been steadily warming for the past 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

The first post of thread continues to grow with beautiful images of Marie as she is near the peak. I am posting them over there as they come in so keep them coming until Marie peaks to have a great archieve.

[supercane4867]

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2014AUG24 170000 7.0 918.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.24 -74.98 EYE

[Yellow Evan]

The eye is as warm as it's ever been, but central convection has been steadily warming for the past 6 hours.

It's CDO is also improving, but it's outflow is getting worse. Probs steady state, or slight intensification since last adv.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Another good loop I created. Sorry about the thing coming in on the side, screen capture is unpredictable.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 15:52:53 N Lon : 111:43:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 926.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.6 degrees