Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[somethingfunny]

This wave leaving Africa looks pretty healthy and already has some spin to it





After detecting it at 12z, the 0z UKMET is developing it again.



So is the Canadian:




And the NAVGEM.



GFS and Euro are showing nothing with this system as of right now. I had noticed on some previous GFS runs while looking at 96L/Cristobal however, that it has previously been developing something out in the MDR in this timeframe.

The SAL looks as conducive as it has all season and the MJO pulse is still in our basin, and of course September starts next week. I think this one has a pretty decent shot at development.

[weathernerdguy]

I've seen it too for the runs for 96L

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, lot of models developing this one. Something to watch for sure as we head into the climo peak.

[TheStormExpert]

Is this the one models have been showing exiting Africa at a high latitude?

[Hurricaneman]

this seems to have a little spin with it and the GFS seems to have a sharp wave for most of the run so maybe this could be one of those sneaky ones

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

Looks good for now and considering climatology it certainly bears watching.

[Hurricaneman]

What I take from this is the GFS does barely anything with it but seems to be close to closing a weak low in the lesser Antilles but seems to be more robust with more mid level vorticty with it so it does bear watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[perk]

What I take from this is the GFS does barely anything with it but seems to be close to closing a weak low in the lesser Antilles but seems to be more robust with more mid level vorticty with it so it does bear watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think this is the wave the CMC is developing.

[gatorcane]

NHC 2pm EST TWO:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to dry
air are expected to inhibit development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive by the
end of the week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



IR SAT, saved image:

[somethingfunny]

This is the same wave that I made a thread for and posted some model runs in. Can we merge?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116643

[gatorcane]

This is the same wave that I made a thread for and posted some model runs in. Can we merge?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116643

I believe these should be merged and a moderator will likely do so soon.

Looking at the global models, they are not showing any troughs in the Western Atlantic out through the next 180 hours. It's possible Cristobal gets strong enough as shown by the NAVGEM and ECMWF that would allow this to recurve somewhere between round 60W, however, the GFS and GEM models don't show enough of a weakness and bring this system much further west.

A system we will need to watch as we head towards the climatological peak.

[cycloneye]

Merged the two topics. Hurricaneman,there was a thread made about the same area of interest before you made it so I merged them.

[Riptide]

This one really holds my interest strongly, due to the longwave setup after Cristobal departs and the possibility of this remaining weak until 60W.

[SFLcane]

Canadian with new system heading WNW...

[floridasun78]

Canadian with new system heading WNW...

that 1012 low?

[SeGaBob]

I feel strongly that this one will recurve as well...if there's any way at all they'll find it.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

I feel strongly that this one will recurve as well...if there's any way at all they'll find it.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

likely it will

[floridasun78]

ok this now 97l??? mod need move this active page

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 97L. Go here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116652&p=2407737#p2407737