ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Jevo]

Hehe 48 Hour Euro showing a weakness that you could drive 3 Cristobals through

[tolakram]

72h Not sure I believe the strength estimate.

[gatorcane]

72h Not sure I believe the strength estimate.
http://imageshack.com/a/img661/6756/Pt55ao.gif

The 12Z NAVGEM also makes this a monster as it heads NE into the Northern Atlantic.

[tolakram]

96h, racing away

[tolakram]

120h, that's a wrap

[Ntxw]

It's probably extratropical or a hybrid at that point when it bombs out. That kind of wave breaking event would probably shut down the Atlantic below it for a good period if verified per euro. Heights would rise a fair amount below.

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance. BAMD does a loop and a couple of GFS Ensembles move it more NW but all the other models N then NE:

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z Guidance. BAMD does a loop and a couple of GFS Ensembles move it more NW but all the other models N then NE:

That's a solid consensus...

[gatorcane]

Look how strong the ECMWF makes this thing and how quickly it is out of the SW Atlantic - looks to becoming hybrid by this time. Day 5 below:

[Wx_Warrior]

HWRF smoked.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ Gatorcane indeed the model depiction looks frightening , thankfully it is well offshore. Other than perhaps brushing extreme SE Newfounland, looks like the worst of it in terms of winds remains out to sea.

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance. A little unusual to see the BAMD not with the rest of the tightly clustered guidance.

[Ptarmigan]

@ Gatorcane indeed the model depiction looks frightening , thankfully it is well offshore. Other than perhaps brushing extreme SE Newfounland, looks like the worst of it in terms of winds remains out to sea.

Kinda like Super Storm Sandy.

[Jevo]

Not going to post images unless something changes but the 0z GFS is already pulling out NE at 24 hours

[deltadog03]

GFS is pulling it out quickly...Not sure If I totally buy that yet.

[blp]

GFS is pulling it out quickly...Not sure If I totally buy that yet.

Yea it starts slowly moving NE in 6hrs. That is not going to happen unless this splits and llc forms NE and leaves the mlc/llc behind to the south.

[MWatkins]

The GFS idea of a system tangled and feeding back into a broader low-level trough appears to be playing out so far - look at all of that convection to the northeast...



MW

[gatorcane]

The GFS expects slow north NNE movement starting last night at 00Z and for it to continue from this point on. Cristobal's naked swirl did slowly move N last night but seems to have stalled again.

[gatorcane]

The NAM has continued it's left shifts and now shows Cristobal just very slowly drifting north for the next few days until final turning more NE out to sea around 60 hours.

This model no longer connects Cristobal with the low off to the NE during the first 24-48 hours

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF has this down to 968MB heading ENE over the North Atlantic, 96 hours from now