EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2014AUG24 170000 7.0 918.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.24 -74.98 EYE

Version 8.1.4 was found to be a bit too bullish with tropical cyclones (I wish I had saved the paper...) Here's the 8.2.1 version which the NHC uses now.

Link

[HurricaneRyan]

Do you think Marie will bring moisture to the US?

[Yellow Evan]

Do you think Marie will bring moisture to the US?

Some during Labor Day weekend.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ29 KNES 241812
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 24/1800Z

C. 15.8N

D. 111.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON WH RING WITH WMG EYE. PT=7.0. MET=7.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

They'll go with 135 if TAFB is 6.5 If it is 7.0, 140 knts is possible.

[supercane4867]

They'll go with 135 if TAFB is 6.5 If it is 7.0, 140 knts is possible.

TAFB had Amanda at T7.0 when SAB did not. I see no reason to keep it below T7.0 based on satellite presentation

[Yellow Evan]

They'll go with 135 if TAFB is 6.5 If it is 7.0, 140 knts is possible.

TAFB had Amanda at T7.0 when SAB did not. I see no reason to keep it below T7.0 based on satellite presentation

SAB could not due to constraints in that case. It probs (barley) warrants a 7.0.

[Kingarabian]

SAB at 7.0.

T7.0/7.0 MARIE -- East Pacific

ADT CI almost at 7.0.

[Yellow Evan]

Right now I'd lean towards 140 knts. It will come down to who is on staff.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Cant find any more good images, So this is probably the last one. Does anyone else have links where good images are found? Thanks.

[supercane4867]

ADT catching up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.6mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.1 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +18.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[supercane4867]

Here we go!!!

EP, 13, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1119W, 140, 918, HU, 34, NEQ, 270, 240, 150, 150, 1009, 360, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[Ptarmigan]

Mighty Marie. It is quite a large hurricane!

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 13, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1119W, 140, 918, HU, 34, NEQ, 270, 240, 150, 150, 1009, 360, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1119W, 140, 918, HU, 50, NEQ, 100, 90, 70, 90, 1009, 360, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1119W, 140, 918, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1009, 360, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,


YES!!!

[Ntxw]

Very deserving, lived up to the hype! Congrats EPAC on your cat 5, beautiful hurricane.

[Hurricane_Luis]

And...There is it. Category 5 Hurricane Marie.

2014AUG24 180000 7.0 918.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF
2014AUG24 173000 7.0 918.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF

[Kingarabian]

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2014AUG24 170000 7.0 918.9 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.24 -74.98 EYE

Version 8.1.4 was found to be a bit too bullish with tropical cyclones (I wish I had saved the paper...) Here's the 8.2.1 version which the NHC uses now.

Link

That version seems just as bullish

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 145 148 148 145 130 109 89 69 52 32 20 DIS
V (KT) LAND 140 145 148 148 145 130 109 89 69 52 32 20 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 140 142 139 133 127 113 99 84 70 57 45 36 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 9 14 16 15 9 7 2 1 2 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 5 0 -1 5 6 10
SHEAR DIR 20 19 15 11 6 43 54 53 39 17 37 195 162
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.1 26.9 26.0 25.1 23.5 22.2 21.9 21.9

[supercane4867]

With a pressure of 918mb, Marie is now the fifth most intense Pacific hurricane on record

[CrazyC83]

Of course with an asterisk due to satellite/recon constraints, but the 918 pressure is what, 5th lowest in EPAC?