Moving West

[WeatherNLU]

WeatherNLU - Understand that if the models were not clustered...everyone of them. Does it really take a lot of faith to put your eggs in that basket? I don't think so. I've been doing this so long that I've never seen every model jump on something and be wrong...so wrong...that they predicted a NC northward landfall and it went into south Florida. THat has never happened even when the earliest dynamic models came out...much less with todays models.

Also...it is important to remember we are not talking 10 days out now or 6 days out...to hit Florida...these models have to ALL be wrong 2-3 days out.

Now...given THAT information. DOes it really take a lot of faith to put my eggs in the model basket when they all say the same thing and we are only 3 days out? Think as a met. No...it doesn't ALL the models are not going to be 600 miles off 3 days out. That is not going to happen.

I don't want to argue, but if you think the models have never been wrong even though they are FAIRLY clustered, you are sadly mistaken. If that trof does not dig down, which the NHC has already illuded to, those models are in the crapper. Plain and simple.

[WeatherNLU]

Well weatherman...still going for a closing gap and building ridge? Go to a 25 image GHCC loop...low rez so you can see the eastern us (i km ir) and tell me what you see. If you extrap the movement out...it would come into Jax now if it didn't turn at all...and it will turn.

I think you need to re-extrapolate there. Jax? I don't think so. NHC is nuts with this 290 stuff. It's moved .7N and 2.6W in the last 12 hours. That's barely 280 if at all. XTRAP for me brings it in around West Palm. I agree that it will not follow an XTRAP, but at least get the facts straight before saying stuff like that.

[Air Force Met]

I did the 25 frame loop myself...took a ruler...took the center from frame one and enter it on frame 25...and it enter up in JAX...that was the facts. That is what I did when I posted the post. GHCC loop.of 25 frames rom 7z - 12z. Simple meteorology, It is the kind of meteorology we used to have to do before we had stuff we have now. Most mets don't know how things used to be.

And yes...models can be wrong...never said they couldn't. However...when models are clustered...and not one is singing another tune...the chances that they are ALL going to be wrong 48 hours out are slim to none. If you think not...how much you willing to bet and what kind of odds you got? ALL the models are not going to misjudge that trough SO badly so close to the intitialization time. I've been doing this too long and it ain't going to happen. IF the models were split at 48-72 hours with some going west and some NW...then yes. In this situation...no way...will not happen. Sit and watch.

[WeatherNLU]

OK, so since you are old and I am not that means I can't add coordinates and come up with an XTRAP? Please. It's plain as day. Regardless, I am sitting, I am watching and I see all of the models making you look like a fool since they can't even initialize local observations properly. Keep relying on those models, you can have them. Read between the lines, the 5PM discussion means one thing and one thing only. The NHC is setting themselves up so that they don't stupid if it doesn't make this magical turn. Mark my words, the 5PM discussion is a big time rear end covering job. It proves there is doubt.

[Air Force Met]

No it doesn't. It means there is doubt that it will go into Delmarva vs central NC. Read Derechos post.

Making me look like a fool?

Thanks. End of discussion.

[WeatherNLU]

No it doesn't. It means there is doubt that it will go into Delmarva vs central NC. Read Derechos post.

Making me look like a fool?

Thanks. End of discussion.

I read his post, and that's his opinion. Just like you telling me that now it's NC, not the Delmarva region. Keep guessing and keep guessing wrong. The models are not correct in their initialization and some of them don't even initialize the correct strength of Isabel. I am looking at models that have one or two contour lines for a 930-940 millibar hurricane. It's sad at best. All I am saying is stop ruling things out that still have a good possibility of happening. The NHC 5PM discussion is a big time CYA. They see it, it's not turning. Not that it won't, but the westerly motion has continued to this point with no sign of letting up.

P.S. I don't know why you continue to get defensive. I am not interested in betting you or arguing with you. I have my opinions, and you have yours. I can live with that. I just sense that you are getting frustrated because the turn hasn't happened. Wake up and look. To steal a phrase from you.........

IT'S NOT TURNING, IT'S NOT TURNING, IT'S NOT TURNING.

[chris_fit]

The trend seems to be the more posts u have the more north it'll go

So I'm gonna pretend I'm a big boy and say NC/VA :-D


Cheers!
~Chris