ATL: DOLLY - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 241915
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1915 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972014) 20140824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140824 1800 140825 0600 140825 1800 140826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 33.5W 11.3N 36.0W 12.0N 39.0W 12.9N 42.1W
BAMD 11.0N 33.5W 11.4N 36.4W 12.3N 39.1W 13.3N 41.7W
BAMM 11.0N 33.5W 11.3N 36.4W 12.1N 39.6W 13.0N 42.9W
LBAR 11.0N 33.5W 11.2N 36.5W 12.0N 40.2W 12.9N 44.0W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140826 1800 140827 1800 140828 1800 140829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 45.1W 15.1N 50.5W 16.4N 55.0W 18.3N 58.2W
BAMD 14.2N 44.2W 15.8N 48.1W 17.8N 51.2W 19.4N 54.3W
BAMM 13.9N 46.2W 15.0N 52.4W 16.4N 57.0W 18.9N 60.2W
LBAR 13.9N 47.8W 15.4N 54.7W 16.7N 55.6W 20.3N 58.8W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 33KTS 38KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 33.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 30.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 28.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SFLcane]

First models....

[gatorcane]

Looking at the global models, they are not showing any troughs in the Western Atlantic out through the next 180 hours. It's possible Cristobal gets strong enough as shown by the NAVGEM and ECMWF that would allow this to recurve somewhere between round 60W, however, the GFS and GEM models don't show enough of a weakness and bring this system much further west.

[meriland23]

Track looks a little suspicious

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 shows a track similar to the GFS and GEM with a West bend at the end just north of the Leewards:

[Riptide]

Classic Ike bend there on BAMD, suggests a rebuilding ridge.

[jlauderdal]

Track looks a little suspicious

its all suspicious based on model performance with cristobel ..gfs and euro agreement and a coc needed before we trust much of any modeling

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS prediction, just north of Leewards heading west:

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows it heading towards the SE Bahamas in one week with a ridge off to the NW:

[floridasun78]

remember alot early models run of Cristobal show this kind track but later show moving out to sea

[SFLcane]

CMC is on it...Hurricane heading W.

[CrazyC83]

Building ridge definitely suggests that if it wants to recurve, IMO has to do it around 50W.

[meriland23]

CMC is on it...Hurricane heading W.

GFS kept it weak but the same track as CMC.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +72 Not picking up anything

[meriland23]

GFS doesn't spot it again till 144hrs or so. Even then it is very very weak but in motion you spot it trecking towards FL.

[Jevo]

The 12z GEM (CMC) Picks up on it as SFLCane said

10 day 850mb Wind Swath

[cycloneye]

Jevo the L over Guadeloupe.

[hurricaneCW]

Nice something to watch and keep an eye on as any clear recurve is not apparent right now. I hope this can really develop as Cristobal looks like a complete mess.

[Jevo]

Jevo the L over Guadeloupe.

Ahhh thank you sir

One thing that the 12z GFS is definitely showing is a solid ridge in place in 5 days



Still there +7 days