ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Untrained eye -- have a very hard time seeing LL center. All the components are there, nice outflow, good inflow visible to W, storm tops bubbling near center. But where it is exactly and if/where it's moving could only be known from recon fixes I'd say.

NASA satellite gives a good idea where it's at as it's much higher resolution (and more imagery) than the floaters, a swirl on the NW edge of the convection can be seen.

[baytownwx]

from the image loop posted above, I have to agree that it looks like the LLC is heading NNW while the MLC is just about stationary.

[ozonepete]

Untrained eye -- have a very hard time seeing LL center. All the components are there, nice outflow, good inflow visible to W, storm tops bubbling near center. But where it is exactly and if/where it's moving could only be known from recon fixes I'd say.

NASA satellite gives a good idea where it's at as it's much higher resolution (and more imagery) than the floaters, a swirl on the NW edge of the convection can be seen.

Yeah I see the swirl that matches the NHC position. That could very well be it despite where I think it is. Either way convection is getting over that area now as well. Looks to be doing what is expected overall anyway. I don't see any signs it won't follow the NHC forecast pretty closely s far.

[srainhoutx]

There is your center...

[baytownwx]

Ahh yes there it is, that tiny swirl

[Frank2]

Per the 5 pm Discussion:

Cristobal's convective cloud pattern has not changed much during the
past 6 hours, other than cloud tops having warmed some. Aircraft and
satellite data indicate that the inner-core wind field is still
broad, with multiple small swirls rotating around a mean center. Air
Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate the
central pressure has remained steady at 1001 mb, so the initial
intensity will be kept at 40 kt for this advisory.

In the end as they said the NHC is using the mean to determine overall direction - makes sense...

[ozonepete]

Thanks for posting that, Frank! We all need to remember that in a weak, disorganized TS like this there's often 2 or 3 of those little swirls rotating around each other and you can't see them all since they may be under the convection. So that little swirl may not be where the final LLC is consolidating right now, which could be a little further south. Just something to consider.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014082418/nam_mslp_pwat_watl.html

for fun

NAM 18z breaks a piece of energy off and it goes west into gulf

[bahamaswx]

Looks like outflow to the west is trying to get going.

[ozonepete]

Look at the change from 1445 to 2145 UTC (From 10:45 AM to 5:45 PM today), the change over 7 hours. This system is consolidating and strengthening slowly but surely.

10:45 AM


5:45 PM (7 hours later)

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty big storm if you ask me. That explains a lot of it's issues it has been having.

[tailgater]

Looks like the Low and Mid levels are competing.

[Airboy]

Is it any risk it get stuck under a ridge if is stalling too long without moving north? It not moving much now and the last center fix is slightly S of previous position.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Pretty big storm if you ask me. That's explains a lot of it's issues it has been having.

Yup. This always had a large circulation and I always expected it to be a big hurricane when it gets there. And yeah that explains a lot of its issues since its large size makes it more likely that parts of it will extend into areas with shear, dry air or land, even when the COC is under good conditions. Hispaniola certainly gave it a hard time for a while. And it still has to get past the remaining shear forecasted for a day or two before it can take off.

[tolakram]

Live visible as the sun sets, speed it up. You can clearly see the LLC spinning. Still looks very sheared IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[NDG]

Before the sun is setting it looks like the LLC was slow moving NW again, might be rotating around a bigger circulation to the south.

[ozonepete]

Is it any risk it get stuck under a ridge if is stalling too long without moving north? It not moving much now and the last center fix is slightly S of previous position.

The models don't think so. Although this deep eastern trough is missing it (that's why it's slowing down) the next trough coming in during mid-week looks very likely to steer it out to sea. Hard to see right now how it would get missed by the next trough unless the next trough turns out to be much weaker. Just watch the model forecasts as they come out.

[tropicwatch]

Based on center fixes the past couple of hours I think she might have gone stationary.

[ozonepete]

Based on center fixes the past couple of hours I think she might have gone stationary.

Looks like that could be. Probably because the LLC is relocating under that area of strong convection. Btw, Cristobal is a male name.

[meriland23]

Will this change the projected path considering it is practically stationary and the LLC is relocating?