ATL: DOLLY - Models

[Jevo]

18z GFS +96 - Nothing yet... Pretty decent ridge in place

[Jevo]

18z GFS +120 - 97L making it's debut

[Jevo]

18z GFS +144 -

GFS Loses it at +165 East of PR

[HURRICANELONNY]

Model, model model... at least we have something to talk about.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM moves this invest all the way to just about where Cristobal is right now, but keeps it generally weak:

[gatorcane]

[Siker]

Look how strong the ECMWF makes this thing and how quickly it is out of the SW Atlantic - looks to becoming hybrid by this time. Day 5 below:

Errr, if you're referencing the thing in the Northwest Atlantic, that's Cristobal... Think that 97L is down by the Lesser Antilles in that image.

[gatorcane]

Look how strong the ECMWF makes this thing and how quickly it is out of the SW Atlantic - looks to becoming hybrid by this time. Day 5 below:

Errr, if you're referencing the thing in the Northwest Atlantic, that's Cristobal... Think that 97L is down by the Lesser Antilles in that image.

Yes I moved it to the Cristobal models thread, thanks.

[meriland23]

I just want to point out this is what CMC predicts at hour 240. NAVGEM is also following the same route though that only goes to hour 180

[JtSmarts]

Looks like the super rare Jacksonville landfall, that would be insane if it verified this far out.

[meriland23]

CMC and NAVGEM are very close in agreement when it comes to track.

Here is NAVGEM at 00z 180 hours out


Here is CMC at 00z 180 hours out.

[USTropics]

0z ECMWF run didn't do much with this disturbance. It brings 97L into the Bahamas at 240hrs:



0z GFS run also doesn't really develop 97L. It's hard to track the disturbance, but following the vort it seems to interact with PR/Haiti/DR/Cuba before traversing through the GOM and towards Texas in the very long range:

[blazess556]

Latest GFS ensembles courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

[cycloneye]

The 06z Bams.

[cycloneye]

12z text and graphic.


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC MON AUG 25 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972014) 20140825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140825 1200 140826 0000 140826 1200 140827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 39.5W 12.3N 43.3W 13.1N 47.3W 13.6N 51.0W
BAMD 11.7N 39.5W 12.3N 42.2W 12.8N 44.8W 13.3N 47.3W
BAMM 11.7N 39.5W 12.3N 42.9W 12.9N 46.4W 13.4N 50.0W
LBAR 11.7N 39.5W 12.3N 43.0W 13.0N 46.8W 13.7N 50.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140827 1200 140828 1200 140829 1200 140830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 54.6W 14.7N 61.6W 16.1N 68.2W 18.0N 74.8W
BAMD 13.7N 49.5W 15.1N 53.6W 17.4N 57.4W 18.9N 60.7W
BAMM 13.7N 53.4W 14.5N 59.1W 16.3N 63.7W 18.2N 67.3W
LBAR 14.3N 54.7W 16.1N 60.8W 17.6N 63.0W 17.8N 62.5W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 39.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Senobia]

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the super rare Jacksonville landfall, that would be insane if it verified this far out.

I am happy this CMC run is 10 days out. Hope this will not pan out and odds hopefully are it will not.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the super rare Jacksonville landfall, that would be insane if it verified this far out.

I am happy this CMC run is 10 days out. Hope this will not pan out and odds hopefully are it will not.

cmc+10 days= error 1000 miles either direction

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I thought that was for 1 day out. Just wait til later tonight it will show it as a cat 5 hitting New Orleans

[Tireman4]

:lol: I thought that was for 1 day out. Just wait til later tonight it will show it as a cat 5 hitting New Orleans

Or a blizzard hitting Houston... LOL