ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS.
Poor init this aft illustrated the concern long honked about here. The models have consistently undercooked ridging and undercooked MSLP with Izzy. I am forced to stick with my Myrtle Beach southern flank scenario. don't think she comes in that far south, but will not dismiss it ATTM.
Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA
now residing full time at http://www.wrel.com/hurricane.htm
