ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I'll just sit back and wait to see if this invest can first just survive the trek across the tropical Atlantic. Still ample amount of dry, stable air for this invest to battle against. This same ole' beat continues. If 97L can somehow survive and make it past 60 W longitude, then it's a matter if another trough will be there to catch it and take it out to sea. This has a way to go still just to survive.

[Alyono]

long range, it looks like another trough off of the coast, which should turn this around 65W. However, this is very preliminary so things can change

[TheStormExpert]

More interest in this than Cristobal.

[gatorcane]

long range, it looks like another trough off of the coast, which should turn this around 65W. However, this is very preliminary so things can change

What trough are you seeing - one left behind by Cristobal if it gets strong enough as the NAVGEM and ECMWF are making it?

[jlauderdal]

More interest in this than Cristobal.

its tough at the top, ha

[Jevo]

12z GFS has a pretty strong ridge in place 7 days out. After that the only weakness is in the central Atlantic well East of the anticipated location of 97L.

[meriland23]

So if that comes into fruition .. either it gets picked up by that ridge or we're SOL.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm going to the Dominican Republic 8/29 - 9/2. Is this system likely to interact with that area during that time? Please tell me it's not.

[cycloneye]

I'm going to the Dominican Republic 8/29 - 9/2. Is this system likely to interact with that area during that time? Please tell me it's not.

Is very early to tell if this will go to the DR and in what intensity. I think in 2 or 3 days,there may be a better idea.

[wxman57]

I'll tell you for certain in another 7-10 days...

[meriland23]

I would take just about every model run with a grain of salt this far out. I mean, take Christobal for example, 4-5 days ago the models had this going in the GOM hitting Texas. It's all just a guess this far out so just keep a eye open

[somethingfunny]

I'm going to the Dominican Republic 8/29 - 9/2. Is this system likely to interact with that area during that time? Please tell me it's not.

Expect rain at least some of the time. The rest is all just a question.

[jlauderdal]

I would take just about every model run with a grain of salt this far out. I mean, take Christobal for example, 4-5 days ago the models had this going in the GOM hitting Texas. It's all just a guess this far out so just keep a eye open

excellent advice moving forward..especially gfs, just ask alonyo what he thinks about gfs

at this point the euro is first, gfs a distant second and i cant see messing with hwrf, canadian, ukmet...bams in the very deep tropics on a limitd basis

im keeping it simple for the rest of the season...euro, recon, nhc track which is great inside 72 hours,sat and radar obviousely close in only
happy hurricane hunting 60/more days

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for
development during the next few days, but could become more
conducive by the end of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Hurricaneman]

I say this is going to be sneaky and look like a recurve only to turn back west towards the US, but Cristobal is the important piece of the puzzle as of now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

From this mornings discussion by the San Juan NWS.

NEXT WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 38W HAS A WEAK LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. NHC GIVING IT
20% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT IT HAS
HARDLY ANY SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...ECMWF OR THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONLY THE
UNREALIABLE CANADIAN AND NAVGEM MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE COULD
STILL BE A SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER AS MODELS SHOW THE WAVE SLOWING
DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS EVERYWHERE TO
INDICATE BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND.

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well. Atleast they upt it after 5 days.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2014082512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 395W, 20, 1010, DB