ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

comparing the technology of model forecasting in Andrew's time and today is like day and night

[deltadog03]

GFS moves this pretty quick in the next 24 hours to the north...IDK about that.

[ozonepete]

I just don't see the llc where the NHC has it at INIT 25/0300Z 24.8N 73.1W. I know this is IR2 but there is no spin going on there at all. I have a feeling it further south or dipped slightly SSW. I am seeing some spin around 23.8 and 73.2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

I disagree a little with those that say this does not matter. The margins are very tight with this system it is not like we are talking about some sweeping trough off the east coast to pick this up. The thing that would alarm me is if we see SW movement then that could put the Ridge to the West in play. You guys are probably right in the end and we are probably going to see an OTS scenario but this is what this forum is about.

EDIT: NDG, sorry I just saw your post with a similar observation.

I guess I'm the "not matter" guy. All good. It's really great to discuss all of the possibilities. My only point that I'm not giving up on is that this has not been moving north in the last few hours. I have been watching satellite loops since they first came out - IR, visible, water vapor, and RGB - and I know how to see forward motion from them and I know what can fool you. This is not moving north at 5 mph. I may get some stuff wrong but I know I'm not wrong on the overall motion right now.

[NDG]

GFS moves this pretty quick in the next 24 hours to the north...IDK about that.

Yeap, I noticed that too. In fact it shows for it to be near the 26th latitude by tomorrow morning, there is no way.

[Frank2]

Well, the NHC forcaster could have said it was stationary, but it was his call to leave some slow forward motion until something convinces him otherwise...

There is also a chance the recon will no longer find a LLC (my opinion) and that will change everything, but perhaps this was his way of leaving that for the mid-shift to decide, once recon samples the system (or its parts thereof : )

[HURAKAN]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

[ozonepete]

Well, the NHC forcaster could have said it was stationary, but it was his call to leave some slow forward motion until something convinces him otherwise...

There is also a chance the recon will no longer find a LLC (my opinion) and that will change everything, but perhaps this was his way of leaving that for the mid-shift to decide, once recon samples the system (or its parts thereof : )

Lol Frank. You never want an LLC. There is no northward motion right now though it could resume at any time. And this will intensify sooner or later. There are no really strong adverse conditions expected in its future, including what the NHC has consistently said.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Cristobal does appear that it is about to begin its course towards the NE or ENE and will strengthen to a Hurricane by Wednesday.

Synopsis for Cristobal and other systems: http://goo.gl/BAA3Pe

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

[]https://scontent-b-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10313713_781067915249001_6817779215774028940_n.jpg?oh=4196e0e96a804704d034278a18e30bb8&oe=5466DC15[/img]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

Yep a big mess if you ask me. Seems typical the past few years. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder and for the Atlantic lately that is beautiful

[ozonepete]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

Yeah. Here's my view of the outcome.

[hurrtracker79]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

Yeah. Here's my view of the outcome.

What is expected to move Cristobal N/NE the actual weakness or the S to N flow around the western edge of the Bermuda High. How is it supposed to get to the bus stop in the short term? Pro mets?

[Hammy]

I just don't see the llc where the NHC has it at INIT 25/0300Z 24.8N 73.1W. I know this is IR2 but there is no spin going on there at all. I have a feeling it further south or dipped slightly SSW. I am seeing some spin around 23.8 and 73.2.

I'll second that, I've been staring at the RGB and NASA hi-res loops, and the center appears a good deal south of the official position.


All the low clouds to the SE of the official location are out of the east.

[Frank2]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

It really does and may have made the transition mentioned in the TCD, though I'd guess that'd be unusual for this time of year and that far south (but not so in June or November)....

As ozonepete said pressures are low so time will tell, and glad a pro met agreed that the trogh and TS seem as one - right now it appears like a winter cold front for that area...

Frank

[blp]

[]https://scontent-b-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10313713_781067915249001_6817779215774028940_n.jpg?oh=4196e0e96a804704d034278a18e30bb8&oe=5466DC15[/img]

Cristobal and the trough almost look as one!

Yeah. Here's my view of the outcome.

[]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satenhanced2014-08-250315_zpsc7e11627.jpg[/img]

I totally agree Ozonepete, I think the two will split this may be causing some confusion in the models. I posted a link earlier to a GFS run yesterday at 06z that alluded to this split happening and having the southern piece head off to the WNW once the ridge blocks the NE route.

[artist]

Anyone able to post recon? I'm on my tablet that loses the formatting when I paste an obs.

[blp]

Ozonepete, take a look at this difference in the steering chart. The ridge is advancing and only a crack is left in the door to the NE.

2100UTC


0300UTC

[SapphireSea]

comparing the technology of model forecasting in Andrew's time and today is like day and night

Especially with resolution I agree. In the grand scheme of things; We are still a galaxy away from any kind of real accuracy outside of 6-12 hours. In the end what matters is how our human mets process and integrate the model data into the forecast.

Cristobal does look like a mess. I have a feeling that the forecast is not cut-and-dry with any real accuracy yet. Perhaps that leftover energy from Cristobal's south area will be in play for FL weather in a couple of days?

[summersquall]

[Hammy]

Based on recon, it looks like the center is on the northern edge of the convection (plenty south of where the official 11pm position was) and winds look like they could support a solid 60mph.

[crimi481]

this low center may end up south of Cuba. Its happened before. NHC not mentioned "south"