ATL: DOLLY - Models

[Riptide]

12z GFS sends 97L into NC as a tropical storm.

[Alyono]

conditions must be getting more favorable as the model support is starting to increase

[Alyono]

now that I mention more model support, I see the Canadian dropped it

[HURAKAN]

typical pattern, generally unfavorable tropics, more favorable subtropics

[Senobia]

[gatorcane]

I have seen an overall less enthusiastic trend from the models today.

[petit_bois]

I have seen an overall less enthusiastic trend from the models today.

Patience grasshoppa...

[jlauderdal]

now that I mention more model support, I see the Canadian dropped it

canadian could blow up a major and it would be suspect just as dropping a system is suspect when talking about the canadian

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM has what looks like a strong TS or hurricane east of the Bahamas at 180 hours. GFS shows a low east of the SE Bahamas around the same timeframe.

[SFLcane]

Yea it's the nogaps... but no development in the near term for sure plenty of dry sinking air across central Atlantic.

[blp]

Here we go again. Looks like the models are slowly latching onto this. King Euro keeps it weak throughout and westward. The Ukmet is a no show so far.

[WPBWeather]

Yea it's the nogaps... but no development in the near term for sure plenty of dry sinking air across central Atlantic.

Actually, the "SAL" gremlin seem less now than any time in recent weeks in the Atlantic. See the links below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[blp]

typical pattern, generally unfavorable tropics, more favorable subtropics

Lol, no kidding for the last several years now, it is our new reality.

[TheStormExpert]

typical pattern, generally unfavorable tropics, more favorable subtropics

Lol, no kidding for the last several years now, it is our new reality.

And it seems to be gradually trending further north every season. Next season systems won't get going till at least 35N!

[SFLcane]

Here we go again. Looks like the models are slowly latching onto this. King Euro keeps it weak throughout and westward. The Ukmet is a no show so far.

Yea euro keeps it weak cause of the desert out there. Looks horrible tonight. Cristobal is the most horrid looking hurricane I've ever seen. Looks like a fl afternoon t storm.

[Riptide]

Nothing like a Georgia/South Carolina cane
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this landfalling in Savannah, GA at 10 1\2 days, this most likely will change as if it stays weaker or the trough is a little farther west then Florida and or the Caribbean and possibly the GOM may have to watch this

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[meriland23]

GFS starting to agree with where CMC predicted landfall yesterday.

GFS 00z


CMC yesterday

[somethingfunny]

Here we go again. Looks like the models are slowly latching onto this. King Euro keeps it weak throughout and westward. The Ukmet is a no show so far.

I've been having trouble accessing the UKMET lately but a few days ago it was developing this wave. I posted it in the Talking Tropics thread linked at the start of this thread.

[USTropics]

Oz ECMWF run out. Looks to have a decoupled system that breaks up over Haiti/DR, with part of the vort heading towards the Bahamas and the other towards Cuba at hour 144:



0z ECMWF then takes the remains of 97L through south Florida and into the eastern GOM at 240 hours. No real development to speak of throughout the run and a lot of land interaction: