ATL: DOLLY - Models

[meriland23]

Just want to point this out...

CMC 00z

[tolakram]

still in fantasy land, fortunately.

The GFS does show this wave entering the Bahamas as a weak storm or low at 180 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z guidance continues to show this wave in the vicinity the Bahamas around a week from now with the GFS a little north of the rest of the global models and slower while the ECMWF is the fastest and further south but not as south as the GEM guidance. None of the global models are making it strong but we are still far out.

[Frank2]

After the Cristobal model scare some might be hesitant to believe them so soon - as you said the GFS doesn't indicate anything too interesting...

[gatorcane]

18Z global models are rather lackluster on this developing, let's see what the overnight runs show.

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS +72: SW Caribbean looks like it's cranking up

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS +96

[N2FSU]

+144

[cycloneye]

168 hours.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has landfall in Mexico at 180 hours.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS has landfall in Mexico at 180 hours.

Yep ... a Tampico especial.

[PTrackerLA]

GFS has been very consistent on this solution of a Mexican landfall. Seems like we see this setup occur nearly every season and there doesn't seem to be much to steer this further north with High Pressure over the gulf coast. Still something to watch out over the next several days.

[Alyono]

canadian keeps it farther south, barely bringing it over the water. as a result, we have a TD/weak ts

[N2FSU]

Seems hard to believe that with the persistent east coast trough the past few months, that one wouldn't swing through as we enter September to move this at least a little more north.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM send its up to near Florida but doesn't see as much ridging as the other global models and doesn't seem like it will verify:

[Dean4Storms]

Well you do have to ask yourself how many times out 180 hours does any model get the right landfall location on something it is forecasting to develop. So yes, this could change!

[bamajammer4eva]

18z GFS keeps it weak and dancing around in the BOC through 384 hrs

[Rgv20]

GFS has been consistent on sending a TC to the Tampico area by sometime next week..

0zGFS 144hrs


0zGFS 180hrs

[Rgv20]

GFS still has support of the CMC..

0zCMC 156hrs



0zGFS Ensembles 180hrs...There are quite a few Ensemble Members showing a TC..

[USTropics]

0z ECMWF also in agreement with the GFS on bringing the vorticity maximum associated with ex 97L into Mexico in 144 hours. Strength seems to be comparable to the GFS as well, with a messy, elongated system.