ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I think it is possibly close to TD status. Unless it lingers longer offshore than expected, I don't think the NHC will upgrade.

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[NDG]

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

98L INVEST 140828 1200 26.2N 96.7W ATL 25 1009

[tolakram]

Live visible, 2 frames visible anyway.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-96&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

If you all weren't on central time it would be light by now!

[NDG]

I can tell it has a nice southerly inflow into the convection.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it is close to TC formation if not already there this morning....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[wxsouth]

Looks like it is close to TC formation if not already there this morning....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The low-level center is well west of the mid-level center/convective ball. Expect this to collapse in next few hours with low-level swirl moving inland later today.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like it is close to TC formation if not already there this morning....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The low-level center is well west of the mid-level center/convective ball. Expect this to collapse in next few hours with low-level swirl moving inland later today.

The weak llc is near Port Mansfield about to cross Padre Island. The mid level vort is where all the deeper convection is firing under westerly shear.

[Stormcenter]

Something may end up developing in the GOM later this weekend other 98L. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[tolakram]

saved loop

[NDG]

Looks like it is close to TC formation if not already there this morning....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The low-level center is well west of the mid-level center/convective ball. Expect this to collapse in next few hours with low-level swirl moving inland later today.

Yeah, interesting how the mid level vort-max has been pushing SE leaving the low level swirl behind, like you say is probably going to collapse as the day goes by.

[Steve]

That's a good possibility Stormcenter. Piling up of energy and a backing out boundary? Pattern reversal. Models weren't really showing anything yesterday that would be immediate, but disturbed weather in the Gulf in August almost always has to be watched. Looks like a run of Western Gulf possibilities for the next few weeks. Over the last 5 years, every year but 2009 featured activity in the Western Gulf (primarily the BoC).

[Sanibel]

This formed from a trough remnant that dropped into the Gulf.

[Steve]

Right, it was the butt end. There is a remaining boundary that should back north with the likelihood of anything forming being either along/out front or directly in the wake of the backing trough. North American Model last night showed it kind of as a triple surge (not necessarily the triple surge I've been talking about which would end up being a quadruple if something stronger got going 7-10 days out). And not that I trust it, but sometimes it hits the sim radar pretty well.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20140828%2012%20UTC&param=sim_radar&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model

Okay, so NAM 12Z is still running but the 6z shows another surge moving toward the TX Coast with some apparent rotation on the radar and then something maybe stronger (?) nearing the Yucatan in 4 days from the run. Clues only of course.

[tropicwatch]

Think the MLC will dissipate or could it sink to the surface?

[BigA]

Think the MLC will dissipate or could it sink to the surface?

Typically, MLCs without any low-level support will dissipate on their own. However, there does look to be some low-level inflow toward the area of deep convection, which would be needed for a low-level circulation to develop there. Overall, however, I think the odds are non-negligible, but slim. The most likely scenario is that the LLC moves inland into South Texas in the next few hours and the convection over the Gulf dissipates.

[davidiowx]

With this trough digging as it is doing, what are the odds this hugs the coast as it gets pulled up into the trough? Or is that not practical?

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmm......interesting loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Dean4Storms]

It is not out of the realm of possibility that either another LLC forms out under the convection or that the current LLC gets pulled out there. Steering is not robust.

[davidiowx]

Looks like the colder cloud tops are still getting sheared pretty good.