Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[Yellow Evan]

Just to keep things in perspective, 40% means that it is not expected to become a tropical depression within the next five days.

Actually if something is flat-out not expected to develop they would give a 0% chance. The farther out things go the lower the % chances are, and this has more to do with the level of confidence more than black and white expectations that it either will or won't develop. I have yet to see anything a >50% for the five day that did not have at least 40% for the 48 hour period, even on the storms that have developed.

Have you seen EPAC TWO's? I've seen as high as 0/70 there.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS the last several runs has been the farthest east of all the models and it seems that the Euro is the weakest and farthest west so which one will rule on this one. It seems as though strength wise the GFS has come towards the Euro and unlike the Euro the GFS strengthens the trough rather strongly and pulls this pouch out to sea so the final result is yet to be seen

12zEuro: threat to the lesser Antilles
12 and 18zGFS: Recurve around 50W

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[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is taking more steps toward the Euro solution as it still has only a wave at 48hrs when it had nearly a hurricane at that time frame a few days ago

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ouragans]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mevico

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS had almost nothing and now the 6Z GFS has dropped it.

Wow.

[somethingfunny]

Just to keep things in perspective, 40% means that it is not expected to become a tropical depression within the next five days.

Actually if something is flat-out not expected to develop they would give a 0% chance. The farther out things go the lower the % chances are, and this has more to do with the level of confidence more than black and white expectations that it either will or won't develop. I have yet to see anything a >50% for the five day that did not have at least 40% for the 48 hour period, even on the storms that have developed.

I wanted to come back to this because while I'm not at all an expert on statistics and probabilities, I believe the yin/yang of a 40% development chance is that there's a 60% chance it won't develop. And 5 days out with only one really bullish model, I think that was a good estimate.

[Hurricaneman]

Failed the poof test, another phantom hurricane by the GFS, when in doubt go with the Euro as it looks like it had this right all along

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Speaking of poof,look how the convection has diminished compared to a couple of days ago.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the overnight model runs and the state of this wave this morning, certainly confirms the "red flag" with earlier runs of the GFS trying to quickly deepen this and recurve it immediately. That just didn't make sense to me especially when the GEM model wasn't nearly as bullish which was the big hint something was wrong with the GFS prediction. Since it doesn't look like this wave is going to rapidly deepen into a cyclone in the Eastern Atlantic, this wave should make it quite a bit further west and will need to be watched.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[meriland23]

I wonder if once it hits the water it will come back to life, like a breath of fresh air when it finally gets off land.

[Sanibel]

Could be a bust. It jumped up in latitude and hasn't exited yet.


This was organized and spinning over land. Looks like if it does exit it might be one of those early recurvers.

[gatorcane]

Could be a bust. It jumped up in latitude and hasn't exited yet.


This was organized and spinning over land. Looks like if it does exit it might be one of those early recurvers.

If it develops in the Eastern Atlantic yes, would be a recurver due to a trough that is supposed to dig in to the north due to the passage of powerful extratropical Cristobal.

If it stays a tropical wave or shallow low, it won't be a quick recurver. Latest GFS and ECMWF models bring this wave around the vicinity of the NE Leewards about 1 week from now with a weak low attached where it may find more favorable conditions as it is too far out to know at this point.

I am leaning on it staying generally weak as the MDR is just not looking that favorable for quick development due to a resurgence of mid-level dry air coupled with lingering SAL. I would say it is only marginally favorable.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

Could be a bust. It jumped up in latitude and hasn't exited yet.


This was organized and spinning over land. Looks like if it does exit it might be one of those early recurvers.

If it develops in the Eastern Atlantic yes, would be a recurver due to a trough that is supposed to dig in to the north due to the passage of powerful extratropical Cristobal.

If it stays a tropical wave or shallow low, it won't be a quick recurver. Latest GFS and ECMWF models bring this wave to a little NE of the Leewards in about 1 week from now with a weak low attached where it may find more favorable conditions as it is too far out to know at this point.

I am leaning on it staying generally weak as the MDR is just not looking that favorable for quick development due to a resurgence of mid-level dry air coupled with lingering SAL.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree that it could be a sleeper but I don't think it will survive. I just posted in another thread that there is a big resurgence of dry air in the mid levels this past week in the MDR and the MJO and CCKW are on the downswing.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS shows pouch 23l as a vigorous wave with a closed low feature that travels west and ends up a little NE of the Leewards at 192 hours before the model resolution switches to low resolution:

Thereafter the model deepens this into what looks like a hurricane heading north in the Central Atlantic but it is too far out to know for sure that is what happens.

[abajan]

Just to keep things in perspective, 40% means that it is not expected to become a tropical depression within the next five days.

Actually if something is flat-out not expected to develop they would give a 0% chance. The farther out things go the lower the % chances are, and this has more to do with the level of confidence more than black and white expectations that it either will or won't develop. I have yet to see anything a >50% for the five day that did not have at least 40% for the 48 hour period, even on the storms that have developed.

I wanted to come back to this because while I'm not at all an expert on statistics and probabilities, I believe the yin/yang of a 40% development chance is that there's a 60% chance it won't develop. And 5 days out with only one really bullish model, I think that was a good estimate.

Thank you. This was exactly my point but you have stated it more clearly.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur during the next several days while it moves westward at 10
to 15 mph across the eastern and central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
tomorrow. Development, if any, of this system is expected to
be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves
westward near 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[sunnyday]

Sounds strangely familiar. A hurricane is on the way. Wait, it is only a wave. Wait, it went poof (or recurved).

[TheStormExpert]

Sounds strangely familiar. A hurricane is on the way. Wait, it is only a wave. Wait, it went poof (or recurved).

Story of the season... NOTHING DEVELOPS IN THE MDR! (No Cape Verde Season)