Texas Summer - 2014

[weatherdude1108]

Got a 1/2 inch of rain here at the Weatherdude Center about an hour or so ago! Here's hoping to a multi-day/inch event.

Yeah I got a nice shower at my place this afternoon too! Also, lightning hit the gas pumps at the HEB near my place!

Yikes about gas pump! Hope everyone was ok.
So glad we got some. I didn't expect it yesterday at all. Then I saw the cloud buildups around noon which I had not seen in the morning. Based on that, I had a feeling something might be brewing. I got nothing at work, but there was a half inch in the gauge when I got home. Pretty isolated/scattered, but my house was in the right place this time for a change. My car thermometer went from 102 leaving work, to 88 when I got home 30 minutes later. I got caught in the outflow boundary as I was driving, hearing rumbles of thunder in the distance. Leaves and twigs were blowing off of trees and debris was blowing around in the streets. But is sure felt better! Looking forward to repeats (hopeful)! Our watersheds are in dire straights. I'm done with Summer!

[Ntxw]

Hopefully invest 98L can grow in size so that the trof incoming can draw copious moisture up throughout the state.

Last thing we want is a repeat of Don. POOF

[Portastorm]

Hopefully invest 98L can grow in size so that the trof incoming can draw copious moisture up throughout the state.

Last thing we want is a repeat of Don. POOF

Please don't mention that name ... worst waste of a named system. EVER.

Yeah, those of us in south central Texas are cheering on 98L to quickly morph into a giant, messy blob of showers/storms and then slowly work its way into Texas. A fella can dream, can't he?!

[Tireman4]

Hopefully invest 98L can grow in size so that the trof incoming can draw copious moisture up throughout the state.

Last thing we want is a repeat of Don. POOF

Please don't mention that name ... worst waste of a named system. EVER.

Yeah, those of us in south central Texas are cheering on 98L to quickly morph into a giant, messy blob of showers/storms and then slowly work its way into Texas. A fella can dream, can't he?!

And you know, those are the same exact words Porta used 3 years ago......

[ravyrn]

Is the shear gonna let up soon to let some of that convection build up over 98L or will any convection continue to get sheared off of it to the ENE?

[Ntxw]

Is the shear gonna let up soon to let some of that convection build up over 98L or will any convection continue to get sheared off of it to the ENE?

It's also battling dry air, thus the lack of convection lately. However, unlike Don this is not a Texas issue, it is the state of the Atlantic basin-wide issue.

[somethingfunny]

I'm still optimistic about getting some tropically enhanced rainfall from this disturbance when the trough drops through this week. Next week there may be a storm hitting down by Tampico but maybe the moisture will ride up here like Hermine, you never know, and a week out nobody knows anything really. After next week we're going to lose the MJO big time. :-\

[Portastorm]

I'm still optimistic about getting some tropically enhanced rainfall from this disturbance when the trough drops through this week. Next week there may be a storm hitting down by Tampico but maybe the moisture will ride up here like Hermine, you never know, and a week out nobody knows anything really. After next week we're going to lose the MJO big time. :-\

Totally concur. The pattern itself over the next two weeks is much different than what we've seen the last three weeks. Rain chances will be enhanced.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Increasing threat for excessive rainfall Friday into Saturday.

Surface low located over the western Gulf of Mexico just east of Brownsville will slowly move inland today allowing a plume of very moist air to spread inland from the coast. Brownsville radar indicates that thunderstorms have erupted over/near the center of the circulation this morning. Currently this moist plume extends about 25-30 miles inland and is clearly marked by ongoing thunderstorms over the nearshore waters and coastal counties. As the circulation with 98L gradually dissolves this will open the door to better inland penetration of moisture and thunderstorms starting this afternoon. Still expect a strong rainfall gradient today from the coast inland to roughly I-10 or HWY 105 with our northern counties seeing very little rainfall and the coastal areas possibly picking up a couple of much needed inches.

Forecast gets more interesting Friday-Saturday as an approaching long wave trough over the western US will help to steer the remains of 98L northward toward SE TX/SW LA while a secondary surge of very moist air (PWS at or above 2.5 inches which is +2 SD above normal for late August) just north of the Yucatan moves NW toward the TX coast. Weak large scale ascent will be present from Friday afternoon into Saturday supporting widespread thunderstorms. I am concerned with a few of the models showing some fairly organized thunderstorms as the vort lobe with 98L moves into or just east of SE TX early Saturday morning. Organized thunderstorms in such a moist air mass would be very capable of “incredible” rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour. Rainfall rates of this magnitude would cause flooding even in areas that are running a significant rainfall deficit currently.

Late Weekend/Early Next Week:
Trough axis begins to push eastward Sunday helping to dry out an extremely moist air mass, but another strong tropical wave will already be approaching from the central Caribbean Sea by this time. This wave is a function of a trade wind burst behind the currently departing Hurricane Cristobal over the NW Atlantic. This trade wind burst is allowing strong surface mass convergence on its leading edge, but currently 30kts of upper level WSW shear is keeping the system from organizing. As the wave/wind burst moves westward toward the western Caribbean Sea upper level conditions appear to become favorable for development. The GFS, GFS Ensembles, and CMC all show a closed low tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche early to mid next week. There appears to be enough ridging over the US Gulf coast to keep any tropical system moving WNW or NW toward MX or S TX, but models are starting to point at somewhat of an elongated system with impacts sprawling outward NE from the center well up the TX coast.

Tides:
Winds have sustained in the 15-20mph range overnight and will gradually weaken and veer to the ESE to SE today as the surface low east of Brownsville weakens and shifts inland. Current tides are running 1-2 feet above normal and expect this to continue today. Buoy 20 E of Galveston is running 3.0 ft swell with a 4.1 second period which is down from yesterday, so not expecting any more water to be brought to the coast by wave action. With winds veering from NE to ESE/SE today expect the mean transport of water toward the coast to gradually end also.

Current Water Levels:

Galveston Bay North Jetty: 2.41 ft
Galveston Pier 21: 2.08 ft
Eagle Point: 1.75 ft
Morgan’s Point: 1.50 ft
Lynchburg Ferry Landing: 1.32 ft
Freeport: 1.96 ft
Sargent: 1.23 ft
Rollover Pass: 1.53 ft
Sabine Pass: 1.53 ft

[Tireman4]

Rain starting to move into the Houston-Galveston area. This could be a "soaker" of a day for many folks. Traffic (if the rain hangs around long enough) will be a bear going home.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

[weatherdude1108]

Hoping and praying the rain to our north and west makes it to the Austin/San Antonio area.

The multi-day event I had been hoping for has only been a half-inch on Tuesday. That was the first rain here at my house in almost 6 weeks (month and a half). That has mostly evaporated. We desperately need water. C'mon rain!!!

[Ntxw]

I'm not seeing any large scale rain opportunities statewide within the next 7 days. I don't trust the gulf/Atlantic basin as it has underperformed. I don't think we've had a named system in the gulf or boc at all this season (quite unusual). With the EPAC quiet and suppressed MJO, no true tropical connection aside from weak passing shortwaves.

[vbhoutex]

I'm not seeing any large scale rain opportunities statewide within the next 7 days. I don't trust the gulf/Atlantic basin as it has underperformed. I don't think we've had a named system in the gulf or boc at all this season (quite unusual). With the EPAC quiet and suppressed MJO, no true tropical connection aside from weak passing shortwaves.

I know I haven't looked at and analyzed the models etc. like you have, but I am somewhat concerned that we may have a convergence of systems over SE TX/Houston Metro area that could produce heavy rainfall over the next 36-48 hours. We have moisture being thrown N towards us from the remnants of 98L+a system coming N out of the GOM and the SW coming in from the NW that affected your weather this am. We need some rain, but I prefer it be on a "normal" basis. this concern is not just my thoughts but was gleaned from discussions of several mets I use. However, overall I do agree with our assessment except for the caveat above..

[Ntxw]

I agree, coastal Texas and deep south Texas will benefit and perhaps locally flooding from these western gulf systems being nearby. You folks in these regions do need to keep watch, as for the rest of Texas there really isn't enough scope to have them penetrate deep into the state at least the next 5-7 days.

[Portastorm]

:rain: Hoping and praying the rain to our north and west makes it to the Austin/San Antonio area.

The multi-day event I had been hoping for has only been a half-inch on Tuesday. That was the first rain here at my house in almost 6 weeks (month and a half). That has mostly evaporated. We desperately need water. C'mon rain!!!

I'm disappointed in the lack of showers/storms in the Austin area today. I was lucky enough to be under one this morning around 9:15 am but it was small and brief. Radar at mid afternoon is really ... bleh.

We had a 40% shot. I wonder, synoptically, what spoiled the potential "fun."

[weatherdude1108]

I know! What gives?

Not the comment I was hoping to see from Ntxw. Houston does not need anymore water right now. We're parched right up the road.

When do El Nino effects kick in? Or when are they -- supposed to -- kick in? It's a crapshoot for any rain anymore it seems. Ok, I'll stop my melancholy rant. Can't do anything about it, except make sure the cracks that have formed stay in the yard and it doesn't dry out and crack around my foundation (at least that I can visually see) and the plants are surviving on the once a week watering. At least it won't be in the 100s.

[weatherdude1108]

:rain: Hoping and praying the rain to our north and west makes it to the Austin/San Antonio area.

The multi-day event I had been hoping for has only been a half-inch on Tuesday. That was the first rain here at my house in almost 6 weeks (month and a half). That has mostly evaporated. We desperately need water. C'mon rain!!!

I'm disappointed in the lack of showers/storms in the Austin area today. I was lucky enough to be under one this morning around 9:15 am but it was small and brief. Radar at mid afternoon is really ... bleh.

We had a 40% shot. I wonder, synoptically, what spoiled the potential "fun."

No idea(?). We had sprinkles that lasted about 5-10 minutes at work, then (POOF). Sun came out. I thought the sun would destabilize things. But then I'm not a pro met. Any thoughts from the pro mets? I'm bummed.

[baytownwx]

:rain: Hoping and praying the rain to our north and west makes it to the Austin/San Antonio area.

The multi-day event I had been hoping for has only been a half-inch on Tuesday. That was the first rain here at my house in almost 6 weeks (month and a half). That has mostly evaporated. We desperately need water. C'mon rain!!!

I'm disappointed in the lack of showers/storms in the Austin area today. I was lucky enough to be under one this morning around 9:15 am but it was small and brief. Radar at mid afternoon is really ... bleh.

We had a 40% shot. I wonder, synoptically, what spoiled the potential "fun."

No idea(?). We had sprinkles that lasted about 5-10 minutes at work, then (POOF). Sun came out. I thought the sun would destabilize things. But then I'm not a pro met. Any thoughts
from the pro mets? I'm bummed.

I think when the tropical moisture in the gulf became a "little more organized" it robbed the inland areas of seeing much rain :/

[Ntxw]

I'm disappointed in the lack of showers/storms in the Austin area today. I was lucky enough to be under one this morning around 9:15 am but it was small and brief. Radar at mid afternoon is really ... bleh.

We had a 40% shot. I wonder, synoptically, what spoiled the potential "fun."

Over the years I have noticed large scale rainfalls across the state sets up the same way. The first and most important is the tropical connection. There needs to be a vast plume of surging mid and high level moisture, and almost every time it will come from the Pacific via the subtropical jet or EPAC storm. Westerlies will send it across the state. Low level moisture from the gulf is usually there. We do not have that connection in this set up.

The second way is gulf land-falling systems. This is more luck than assurance. As baytown mentions above, a system that is compact and that does not head NW into the state will only put us on the subsidence side of gulf storms. Most of the plume of mid level moisture will follow the westerlies up to the southeast leaving us robbed. In this case usually the immediate coastal regions will benefit if they are close enough but if it is not land falling and moving N/NW the inland areas of Texas are left with only isolated hit and miss stuff. We have not seen a land-falling system moving deep into the state, rather just meandering the western gulf.

If you can check one or both of these ideas, generally you will get your heavy rain, if not it will more times than not bust.

[ravyrn]

After a nice rain this morning, and then a really big cell moving over this late afternoon, we got right around an inch in Jacksonville for the day. I was out at my mom's in Maydelle for most of the day and heard a tree fall over as I was leaving as well as having a utility truck hydroplane off a sharp curve on the Farm to Market road that went airborne and managed to wedge himself in between two trees in the air. Be safe on the wet roads! I went back out there to eat this afternoon when we got a big downpour and the rain managed to cool the air so much outside that it wound up being cooler outside than it was inside the house. Dropped from 87 to 78 degrees in about 20 minutes of rain.