ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[Javlin]

Would anyone like to guess when was the last time that there was not even a depression in the Gulf prior to September 1st? I'll give you a hint - I was just starting 1st grade.

1963. Only Gulf storm that year was Cindy which didn't form until September.

-Andrew92

Correct! 52 seasons ago. So far this season, we've had only 2 disturbances in the Gulf. That's a record low, too.

Sounds like a winner to me the record low.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My analysis of Invest 99L
Issued 12:38AM August 31st 2014

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L, is a tropical disturbance that is just East of Belize and is looking disorganized at this time. Significant development of this system, if any, may occur as it move West-Northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico nearing Mexico and possibly Texas. Regardless of development, this system may provide some precipitation for Mexico and/or Texas over the couple of days. Therefore, I am giving this system a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a medium chance (40%) of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bamajammer4eva]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NDG]

If development was imminent in the southern GOM you would think chances by the NHC would had been set on High by now in the 5 day range since it will be pushing inland into the mainland of MX in 3-4 days.

[tailgater]

starting to get it's act together now,

radar loop

[Rgv20]

99L definitely looking good this morning..

Saved Loop:

[cycloneye]

It will be important for 99L if is going to develop how north in latitude it emerges into the BOC but is looking good.

[tropicwatch]

Currently the area around Belmopan Belize are reporting the lowest pressures.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize has become a little
better organized over the past few hours. However, land interaction
is expected to limit significant development while the disturbance
moves across the Yucatan peninsula later today and tonight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Blown Away]

North Atlantic and Southern BOC has become the new MDR...

[Rgv20]

Looking really good right now, its going to be interesting it what shape it comes out after interacting with the Yucatan. (history tells us that the Yucatan is gentle towards Tropical Disturbances)

Cycloneye, IMO if 99L can come out of the Yucatan at least on 20N it will be in a very good shape to strengthening come Monday.

Saved Loop:

[srainhoutx]

Pressures are beginning to fall SW of Merida and NW of Campeche. That tends to suggest this disturbance is heading WNW with the wave axis across the Central Yucatan Peninsula.

[SFLcane]

North Atlantic and Southern BOC has become the new MDR...

sadly but true this season. jokes aside plenty of rainfall down there for those folks from what could be dolly.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2014083118, , BEST, 0, 183N, 888W, 25, 1009, DB

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A low-level circulation looks to be taking shape over the Yucatan, which isn't all that surprising with disturbances in this area. My forecast still favors a moderate-strength Tropical Storm Dolly (50-60 mph) moving ashore near Tampico, Mexico by the middle of the week given very warm ocean temperatures, sufficient mid-level moisture, and moderate wind shear.

[Hammy]

A low-level circulation looks to be taking shape over the Yucatan, which isn't all that surprising with disturbances in this area.

I remember this happening with Barry last year as well, do the mountains to the south help the airflow circle around better?

[Nimbus]

A low-level circulation looks to be taking shape over the Yucatan, which isn't all that surprising with disturbances in this area.

I remember this happening with Barry last year as well, do the mountains to the south help the airflow circle around better?

There have been a lot of tropical disturbances that go inland over the Yucatan and develop circulations as they enter the Bay of Campeche.
Some of that probably occurs due to the shape of the coastline as they make landfall.
There is also the last minute High SSTs just offshore.

A WNW track would be the shortest route to the BOC and the initial convective burst once it emerges will help focus the center of surface low pressure.

[TexasF6]

Notice the mid-level circulation to the NE of the center crashing into Belize? A center relocation puts Texas into play, IMO. We need the rain for sure, minus the destruction.














Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[YoshiMike]

i honestly didnt think that this thing was going to make it at all actually