Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Hammy]

Why don't you leave South Florida & the rest of everywhere out of your hurricane fantasies? I don't get excited when a Polar Vortex freezes people to death up North. You want interesting? How about a major hurricane hitting Canada? That should be exciting for everyone and give them something to analyze for years. My requirements for a "successful" hurricane season are:

1. Nothing hits S. Fl. (Ok, I'm selfish)
2. Nothing severe hits anywhere populated.
3. Places that need rain get some, but not too much.

This is not a professional meteorological forecast or opinion - just my own.

I was just waiting for someone to come and pounce right on that post because it showed a track hitting somewhere in an example. I can't use any example that someone on here won't take offense to. Not surprised unfortunately. If I showed a westward track to Texas, they would get offended, and so on. The polar vortex is more common than one might think as it dips down in the winter months, doesn't usually kill people. You can want that and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest, because what weather people desire has no effect in reality.

well said.

I'm not entirely sure when or why it has now became acceptable for people to openly wish for and hope for a major hurricane to hit major populated areas. To the best of my knowledge, this is not what this forum is about.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm not entirely sure when or why it has now became acceptable for people to openly wish for and hope for a major hurricane to hit major populated areas. To the best of my knowledge, this is not what this forum is about.

People seem to think their 'hobby' is more important.

As I've posted before, considering the time period since the last significant strike, and the population changes due to people moving into the area and new births, it is likely there are millions of people in south FL that have never experienced a hurricane in their lifetime.

We should all be hoping there is NEVER another Andrew.

[tolakram]

Ok, let's stay on topic please.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The graphic below represents the dates, going back to the start of the active era in 1995, in which the first ten cyclones of the season attained subtropical or tropical storm intensity. The dates are in UTC. Green indicates that a particular storm number formed on or prior to its climatological average date, and vice-versa for red.

When Dolly forms, it will set a (relatively meaningless) record for being the latest 4th subtropical/tropical storm within the current active era.

[CrazyC83]

This is going almost exactly as expected, except for the fact the season is overperforming in terms of hurricanes. Most predicted 0 or 1 for the number of major hurricanes anyway.

[CrazyC83]

My September thinking: 3 named storms, 1 of which becomes a hurricane (not major). I still don't think we will see a major in 2014, and if we do, it will be late in the season out of the Caribbean.

[Steve820]

In September, I'm going with 3 named storms and 1 hurricane that would eventually strengthen to a major. I still hope we see a major this season.

[StrongWind]

Has there been a season where all named storms (Atlantic) became hurricanes? If not, that could be a record we could root for this year.

[Ntxw]

Couple of Satellite images for September 1st, fairly large in size so don't quote without removing img tags.

http://i61.tinypic.com/2mxgbyt.jpg

http://i59.tinypic.com/346rn80.gif

[ninel conde]

HARD to fathom we can have so many years in a row with a totally dead MDR.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hard to believe how dead the Caribbean and especially the GOM have been this year. I thought last season was bad but wow. Don't think its going to change much either. Pattern is becoming more progressive up north showing fall is right around the corner. All long range models show nothing for the next two weeks in these areas either.

[Alyono]

watch the GOM next week. Getting good model support for a significant TC

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Has there been a season where all named storms (Atlantic) became hurricanes? If not, that could be a record we could root for this year.

All six named storms in 1952 became hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

Has there been a season where all named storms (Atlantic) became hurricanes? If not, that could be a record we could root for this year.

All six named storms in 1952 became hurricanes.

There was an unnamed TS in 1952 though.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Has there been a season where all named storms (Atlantic) became hurricanes? If not, that could be a record we could root for this year.

All six named storms in 1952 became hurricanes.

There was an unnamed TS in 1952 though.

Right, but it just that--unnamed. All named storms in 1952 became hurricanes.

[tolakram]

Models are showing development suddenly, the Euro in particular. 2 pages of dead dead early over and now what's happening? GFS and euro predict a storm over or near Cape Verde 90 hours from now.

When was the last time the euro predicted not one but 2 waves developing?

I just wanted to say this so I can come back in a few weeks after we see what actually happened. I'm looking at the current wind shear maps and wondering what these models are thinking, but we'll see.

[somethingfunny]

Models are showing development suddenly, the Euro in particular. 2 pages of dead dead early over and now what's happening? GFS and euro predict a storm over or near Cape Verde 90 hours from now.

When was the last time the euro predicted not one but 2 waves developing?

I just wanted to say this so I can come back in a few weeks and either after we see what actually happened. I'm looking at the current wind shear maps and wondering what these models are thinking, but we'll see.

I'm a little bit suspicious of these since the negative phases of the MJO and KW (which were strong enough to completely shut down the WPAC for all of August are moving into the Atlantic basin, but it is hard to argue with the Euro so we'll see how it plays out!

GFS long range has us reaching G or H by mid-September, which would be pretty impressive for a "dead season", especially since we'd be around a 50% hurricane rate even if none of these modelstorms reaches hurricane strength.

Folks forget that even hyperactive 1999 only had 11 named storms and Floyd didn't hit until mid-September that year, but it produced a lot of quality for that quantity with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors. This season won't produce that sort of ACE-producing pile of major hurricanes, but we're really not that far behind in the named storms and hurricanes count.

[gatorcane]

Judging by the global models, we could be in for an active couple of weeks at least in September.

Seems like the models think enough instability will exist despite a nonexistent Kelvin wave that we should get some cyclones to develop.

[Ntxw]

Sept 4, 2014. I don't buy much in the way of anything the next few days to week in the east Atlantic. Best area appears to be far western Atlantic where EPAC less hostile may bleed over (W-Carib, Gulf) as long as shear abates.



In one week or so ACE will be near 50. Humberto and Ingrid brings ACE up from the depths to about 23 pts last year at about this time period, we are currently sitting at about 20. If we do not add significantly, we will be near 2013's ACE anomaly by then.

[supercane4867]

April-like shear dominates across the Atlantic as subtropical jet blasting through the tropics