When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[cycloneye]

2014 is already below the average pace as of August 17,even below the 2013 one.

[somethingfunny]

2013 is a perfect example of why named storm counts don't mean a danged thing.

2013 had 5 named storms by this point in the season but 0 hurricanes. I count hurricanes.



Aside from that I think an argument could be made that 90L, TD2, and 95L were all tropical storms at least briefly and would have been named if there had been reconnaissance flights into them during their peak intensities. Then our season would be 5/2/0 right now instead of 2/2/0. Would it really make any difference? I don't think so, but it would change the tone of this conversation that's for sure.

[somethingfunny]

Furthermore, here is a look at the MDR on August 15 over the past 15 years of this "active period":

[weathernerdguy]

What i am seeing there, is that 2002,2005,2006,2010 did not have any storms or pre-storms in the MDR in that image.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: What i am seeing there, is that 2002,2005,2006,2010 did not have any storms or pre-storms in the MDR in that image.

Something else of note, 2010 started August with a moderate storm and weak depression, then had literally nothing until the last third of August.

[Ptarmigan]

2013 is a perfect example of why named storm counts don't mean a danged thing.

2013 had 5 named storms by this point in the season but 0 hurricanes. I count hurricanes.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/ ... tology.gif

Aside from that I think an argument could be made that 90L, TD2, and 95L were all tropical storms at least briefly and would have been named if there had been reconnaissance flights into them during their peak intensities. Then our season would be 5/2/0 right now instead of 2/2/0. Would it really make any difference? I don't think so, but it would change the tone of this conversation that's for sure.

2014 has ACE of 14 or 7 ACE/Storm so far. 2013 has ACE of 36 or 2.6 ACE/Storm. So far, there have been two storms and hurricanes. 2013 had 14 storms and 2 hurricanes. I think 2014 is ahead of 2013.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think 2014 will go down in the record books as one of the most non eventful tropical years in a very long time...

[Hurricaneman]

I think 2014 will go down in the record books as one of the most non eventful tropical years in a very long time...

my opinion is we are in a lull in the +AMO and these can go on for a few years and sometimes up to 5 years but then it usually gets active again on the other side of the lull

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[somethingfunny]

I think 2014 will go down in the record books as one of the most non eventful tropical years in a very long time...

haha it's about time North Carolina ceased to exist

[TheStormExpert]

I think 2014 will go down in the record books as one of the most non eventful tropical years in a very long time...

We already had a Cat.2 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. this season, so I don't know how that is really too uneventful? Last year only had one TS make landfall. Hawaii too had a very rare landfalling TS just recently if you want to count that.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think 2014 will go down in the record books as one of the most non eventful tropical years in a very long time...

We already had a Cat.2 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. this season, so I don't know how that is really too uneventful? Last year only had one TS make landfall. Hawaii too had a very rare landfalling TS just recently if you want to count that.

Perhaps I should rephrase that and say that, "in my opinion" one of the lowest "number" of tropical systems in a very long time.....

[Alyono]

One other possibility,

Could the active phase have started in 1985 instead of 1995? We have to remember that there were missed storms those years that will likely be added during reanalysis. Plus, that is when the frequency of East Coast strikes increased

[Ptarmigan]

One other possibility,

Could the active phase have started in 1985 instead of 1995? We have to remember that there were missed storms those years that will likely be added during reanalysis. Plus, that is when the frequency of East Coast strikes increased

Hmmmmm, interesting to think that active phase started in 1985.

[CrazyC83]

Even in the 1970s and early 1980s, reanalysis will likely find a large number of storms. Perhaps "active phase" is overrated and 2013-14 is one of the quiet phases, like, say, 1982-83 and 1991-94?

[Yellow Evan]

Even in the 1970s and early 1980s, reanalysis will likely find a large number of storms. Perhaps "active phase" is overrated and 2013-14 is one of the quiet phases, like, say, 1982-83 and 1991-94?

Is there any evidence of this or just speculation?

[wxman57]

Note that we do not track "active" and "inactive" phases. We are tracking the temperature phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). There is absolutely no question that the warm phase of the AMO began in 1995. Typically, during a warm phase there are not necessarily a lot more named storms. However, there tends to be more heat energy available for major hurricanes. The seasonal average of major hurricanes rises to about 4 during a warm AMO as opposed to closer to 2 during a cool phase. Past warm phases are intermixed with quite a few "cool" seasons, where the AMO drops to below normal temps. I do not see any prolonged cool AMO phase until probably around 15 years from now, based upon the lengths of previous warm phases of the AMO.

[Ntxw]

We haven't seen an Atlantic major since Sandy in Oct 2012 and even that was brief (talking officially) which is almost 2 years ago. Is the AMO dip playing a role since that time?

[cycloneye]

This topic has to have more discussions as we continue to see the not active North Atlantic basin in the peak weeks of 2014 season. Here are interesting tweets by Ryan Maue.2007,2008 and 2010 were active seasons but agree that in general things have been relatively slow since 2006.

@RyanMaue · 11m
1995 was onset of active era in the North Atlantic. Regardless of AMO, basin has struggled since 2006.

‏@RyanMaue · 20m
No new Typhoons in August in West Pacific basin. My thoughts YTD are that Atlantic is now in dead decade ahead.

[WPBWeather]

This topic has to have more discussions as we continue to see the not active North Atlantic basin in the peak weeks of 2014 season. Here are interesting tweets by Ryan Maue.2007,2008 and 2010 were active seasons but agree that in general things have been relatively slow since 2006.

@RyanMaue · 11m
1995 was onset of active era in the North Atlantic. Regardless of AMO, basin has struggled since 2006.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 20m
No new Typhoons in August in West Pacific basin. My thoughts YTD are that Atlantic is now in dead decade ahead.

Although I use W Bell and read RM (and the other guy there), I am also suspicious of "dead decade" type remarks. Are we dead until a weird 2004/05 season appears with no warning and still no explanation that makes sense? If a dead decade means nothing until there is something, then I agree. Meteorology is not far enough advanced to do much more than speculate on this, IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

I think part of the problem is that ppl have too high expectations. 2003-2012 had pretty historical levels of activity. ATL IMO did not start struggling until 2013.

I've never understood activity cycles in the WPAC, but I guess there is a quiet phase over there as well. SWIO is AFAIK aside from the ATL the only basin within it's active phase (likely for a different reason though). And it's been doing very good as of late. I believe SPAC and AUS are in their quiet phase. And they've been behaving normally. Don't know much about the NIO. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.