ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[Steve820]

This invest looks good. I predict a Tropical Storm Dolly from this that would peak around 60 mph in the BOC. Can't wait to see what Dolly has in store for us

[wkwally]

North Atlantic and Southern BOC has become the new MDR...

sadly but true this season. jokes aside plenty of rainfall down there for those folks from what could be dolly.

Real ironic as in 2008 we got hit with Hurricane Dolly By the way does anyone know if two hurricanes with the same name hit the same place before?

[cycloneye]

Saved radar that shows how the echoes are moving in a circulation type.

[srainhoutx]

North Atlantic and Southern BOC has become the new MDR...

sadly but true this season. jokes aside plenty of rainfall down there for those folks from what could be dolly.

Real ironic as in 2008 we got hit with Hurricane Dolly By the way does anyone know if two hurricanes with the same name hit the same place before?

TS Allison 1989 made landfall near Freeport/TS Allison 2001 struck the Upper Texas Coast and the name was retired after the flood damage that Allison 2001 did to Metro Houston into Louisiana.

[tropicwatch]

Circulation looks close to Campeche.

[wxman57]

It appears unlikely that this possible storm will track as far north as south Texas. Tampico vicinity looks much more likely.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[Hammy]

http://i.imgur.com/19RMINk.jpg

Starting to look like a depression already and it's not even over water yet.

[weathernerdguy]

Does Karl 2010 ring in anyone's ears, through this wasn't a 60 mph tropical storm...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move over the
waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche early Monday, where
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development. This system has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next two to three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

Not as higher in latitude than I thought meaning less time in BOC. I was with 19N.

AL, 99, 2014090100, , BEST, 0, 184N, 902W, 25, 1008, DB

Moving at 290 degrees.

LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 90.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

[YoshiMike]

well, I will be watching this within the next few days!

[Alyono]

The MLC and surface broad low are not aligned

may be why the models refuse to develop this

[Rgv20]

The MLC and surface broad low are not aligned

may be why the models refuse to develop this

Is the broad low the one located a bit more NE than the current 0z coordinates of 99L?

[wkwally]

I agree with wxman57 as I was thinking Tampico yesterday. However, with my location I will be watching this very close.

[wkwally]

Regardless I do hope it might bring some rain here in South Texas. My yard already looks like a desert.

[Alyono]

The MLC and surface broad low are not aligned

may be why the models refuse to develop this

Is the broad low the one located a bit more NE than the current 0z coordinates of 99L?

the broad low is where the NHC has it

the fact that this is quite disorganized and nearly every model shows little, if any, development, should be ringing alarm bells.

Environmental conditions may not be favorable as there is a suppressive Kelvin Wave affecting the area. There are more to favorable conditions than the 1980s thinking of low shear. If this were to develop, (which there may be a 40-50% chance of despite the overall marginal at best conditions) an analog may be Hermine from 2011

[Rail Dawg]

My modeling shows TS Dolly in just under 48 hours in the BOC.

Of course mine isn't EURO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

FWIW, the 0z SHIPS brings this up to 51kt prior to landfall:

V (KT) LAND 25 26 31 35 39 45 51 37 30 28 27 27 27

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

60%/70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart