Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

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NDG
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#21 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:58 am

ninel conde wrote:i think it will go untapped. too many negative factors.


Atmospheric conditions have been improving in the NW Caribbean, windshear has been running near average for the past month or so and instability has also gone up.
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#22 Postby dhweather » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:03 am

As ntxw noted, there's been a lot of shear this year, factors have not been favorable overall.

Of course, they were not generally favorable in 1992 until Andrew came along. There is a tremendous amount of energy available in the ocean, however the atmosphere has not been able to tap into it. Hopefully it stays that way.
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#23 Postby dhweather » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:06 am

On a side note, I just noticed that I just passed my 10th anniversary here. Ivan led me to storm2k, what a wonderful place to talk about the weather. Happy Anniversary guys & gals. :)
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#24 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:00 am

NDG wrote:
ninel conde wrote:i think it will go untapped. too many negative factors.


Atmospheric conditions have been improving in the NW Caribbean, windshear has been running near average for the past month or so and instability has also gone up.



Yes, you are correct, but some on the blog never pay attention to the facts as they are developing.
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#25 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:04 am

ninel conde wrote:i think it will go untapped. too many negative factors.

You are kidding, right?
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#26 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:12 pm

When was the last hurricane to take advantage of those warm waters? Gustav?
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#27 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:11 pm

galaxy401 wrote:When was the last hurricane to take advantage of those warm waters? Gustav?


Ernesto in 2012 pulled off a decent rapid intensification prior to landfall on the Yucatan peninsula. Rina in 2011 definitely took advantage of those waters as well.
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#28 Postby sponger » Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:46 pm

Makes you wonder what it looked like for the Labor Day hurricane and Camille. Have to watch out for a Charley type event. One weakness of the NHC is forecasting a rapid intensification. Could be a serious public safety concern over the next few months. This area has a bad history of nasty storms ramping up quickly.
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#29 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:36 pm

sponger wrote:Makes you wonder what it looked like for the Labor Day hurricane and Camille. Have to watch out for a Charley type event. One weakness of the NHC is forecasting a rapid intensification. Could be a serious public safety concern over the next few months. This area has a bad history of nasty storms ramping up quickly.


We have a long way to go when it comes to intensity forecast. I suspect that area in the Caribbean will be tapped, especially in September to October. Some of the most intense hurricanes occurred in that area like Allen, Gilbert, Mitch, and Wilma.
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#30 Postby blp » Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:37 pm

I don't remember seeing that much white on the graphic. Insane.

Image
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#31 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:56 pm

I have a feeling this could be a setup for an October surprise type storm.
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Re: Insane TCHP values over the NW Carib

#32 Postby Steve820 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:48 pm

Hammy wrote:I have a feeling this could be a setup for an October surprise type storm.


I agree. This seems like a perfect setup for a powerful October major.
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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:11 pm

SST's are super warm here every year.
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