ATL: DOLLY - Models

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Rgv20
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#101 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:05 pm

CMC is not as enthusiastic of developing 99L but it does show a decent 850mb Vorticity moving to NE Mexico early next week

12zCMC 48hrs
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12zCMC 66hrs
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12zNAVGEM develops 99L to a TD/TS with Landfall in NE Mexico/Deep South Texas....more of an outlier right now.

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While the 12zNAM dropped on developing 99L it does show the moisture streaming NW to NE Mexico and South/East Texas...Best case scenario!

12zNAM Rainfall Totals thru Wednesday Evening..
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#102 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:24 pm

0z Models...looks like the Northern end of the Models are part of the NAVGEM, the Consensus would be right around the Tampico area..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#103 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:21 am

12z models.

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#104 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:38 am

HWRF brings this up to 66kt before landfall:

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Rgv20
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#105 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:45 pm

0zNAVGEM strengthens TD5 to a weak TS by tomorrow...has it making landfall by tomorrow afternoon, NAVGEM seems a bit to fast on these..

Midday Tuesday
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#106 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:51 am

Maybe the HWRF was on to something?
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Nederlander
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Re:

#107 Postby Nederlander » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:48 am

Rgv20 wrote:0zNAVGEM strengthens TD5 to a weak TS by tomorrow...has it making landfall by tomorrow afternoon, NAVGEM seems a bit to fast on these..

Midday Tuesday


Actually... looks like it nailed it...
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