Possible new wave over africa? (Is Invest 90L)

[YoshiMike]

Don't know if this would turn tropical or not, but looks pretty heavy.

(water vapor)


(visible) It doesn't look all too visible but decided to post anyway


(IR2)


from the ssd.noaa.gov site

disclamer, i know almost nothing about hurricanes but am quickly gaining interest. I am a tornado guy

[Hurricaneman]

The models are developing this wave so it will need to be watched in the Cape Verde islands

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[somethingfunny]

Does this have a Pouch identifier?

[cycloneye]

Does this have a Pouch identifier?

All about Pouch 027L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P27L.html

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS at 90 hours

[gatorcane]

The GEM model shows some development but keeps it generally weak and sends it rather far to the west.

[Sanibel]

The Atlantic has gone negative again.

[blp]

The Ukmet is onboard with this.

[YoshiMike]

Cool I actually spotted something, haha. I will be watching this.


hope it isnt just a repeat of the last one

[tolakram]

12Z GFS looks to be a little stronger

90h


186h

[YoshiMike]

The Ukmet is onboard with this.

This makes it look like it is going to possibly go pretty far north very early. Again, I have no idea, I am just going by what i see on the pic, but it mwan it is wayyyyyy too early to tell anyway

[gatorcane]

GFS has trended stronger and more west with this wave. The GEM has not though and keeps this one weak but has it heading towards the Leewards in the long-range. Let's see what the Euro does.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
late Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Umm,a setback from one of the global models as 12z UKMET doesn't develop.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro at 96h does not have it.

[tolakram]

Looks like the Euro is speeding up the next wave and dropping the idea of two storms?

[YoshiMike]

i dont get what you're saying, what do you mean two storms? ii know you said dropping them but was there supposed to be two from this wave?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

i dont get what you're saying, what do you mean two storms? ii know you said dropping them but was there supposed to be two from this wave?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

GFS and Euro had two waves emerging from Africa, one at 72 and one at 120 hours. The Euro had the first wave, the Pouch mentioned in this thread, as the weaker one and now seems to slow down the emergence of this wave and/or speed up the second so that only a single wave and storm is depicted in the model run. Not unusual, but not sure if it's accurate.