ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Might have to adjust the forecast cone a little more north.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

Shear has dropped dramatically so storms now firing over the center, making it appear more north. In my opinion.

[USTropics]

First visible image of the day (I brightened it for clarity). Low level banding confirming center is under the recent deep convection:

[tropicwatch]

It might be pretty close to the coast once the HH's get in there.

[USTropics]

The center should remain over the BOC waters for another 12-16 hours. NHC predicts landfall approximately around 1AM on Wednesday.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is headed to Mexico well south of Texas. Impressive blowup of convection that is for sure. The BOC continues to be a breading ground for cyclones year after year as of late.

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[wxman57]

It's clearly moving faster than forecast. It may be at the NHC's 24-hr forecast point in a few hours. Unless it slows down soon it may be inland in 6 hours.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the center is just outside the range of the long range radar out of Brownsville.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/tx/brownsville/bro/?lat=25.98174095&lon=-97.53533936&label=Brownsville%2c%20TX

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-95&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6

[Sanibel]

Convection sheared to the SE.

[NDG]

By the look of things Dolly will be making landfall by this afternoon unless a new LLC reforms further south closer to the convection and MLC.

[USTropics]

From the recent discussion:

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.

Looks like the anticipated slow down will occur after landfall now. That's going to mean a lot of rain for that area and potential flash floods/landslides. Here's a look at the topography of Mexico:

[greg_kfdm_tv]

High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.

[WeatherGuesser]

Goodbye Dolly?

[wxman57]

High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.

I see the same thing, Greg. The Euro has been forecasting landfall this afternoon for the last 3-4 days (vs. the GFS on Wednesday or later). It's 60 miles from land as of 30 minutes ago. I can see evidence that the core is tilted toward the SSE. There appears to be a MLC within the convection to the SSE of the center. There are 2-3 outflow boundaries emanating northward as well - not a sign of strengthening.

[baytownwx]

Just to add a visual to what wxman stated:

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Chris.....I have the center now only about 45-50 miles from the coast. Won't be long before Dolly moves inland....just a rainmaker for northeast Mexico.

[SouthDadeFish]

It appears Dolly will be the first storm of the season that will not make it to hurricane strength.

Edit: Not that this was surprising or anything

[USTropics]

potential landfall near 24N and 98W would be my best estimate. The LLC really did book it WNW while the MLC is lagging behind. I think the GFS was trying to develop a small ridge over Mexico, slowing Dolly down and shunting it NW a bit just offshore causing the lapse in landfall timing.

[northjaxpro]

Actually, with the shear, it barely made tropical storm strength.