Global model runs discussion

[GeneratorPower]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

[Ntxw]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

I don't think this is a fair assumption to the models. I think one should look at all guidance and develop a consensus. Euro can miss genesis, but it is a good tool to use for verification, meaning not being fully on-board until it has something. As with anything else, 5 days is usually our limit for any reasonable forecast and beyond should be taken lightly the same goes for modelling.

[tolakram]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

I can see why for genesis, especially in a slow year when the Euro will seem more accurate, but in average or over-active years the Euro will continually miss development and people will be screaming it's no good. The nice thing about the Euro is when it predicts development it certainly is something to pay attention too, especially in a slow year.

[GeneratorPower]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

I can see why for genesis, especially in a slow year when the Euro will seem more accurate, but in average or over-active years the Euro will continually miss development and people will be screaming it's no good. The nice thing about the Euro is when it predicts development it certainly is something to pay attention too, especially in a slow year.

Sure, I agree. But in regards to "skill" of a model, we're looking at it's ability to be right greater than 50% of the time. Genesis is an either/or event. Either it happens or it doesn't. I'd suggest that the GFS seems to catch more, but it has a high false alarm rate. Euro seems to be Dr. No, but in better than 50% of cases, it seems to be right.

Granted this is just my perception and not necessarily indicative of actual verifiable forecast skill.

[cycloneye]

The runs of the models for the wave in particular that emerges Africa on Thursday will now be posted at the thread for that pouch. (027L) blp,I moved your UKMET post to that thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116685&p=2410366#p2410366

[tolakram]

12Z GFS much stronger with both waves now.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS also showing the gulf development.

I stop looking at 192h, and of course this is still pretty far out.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS showing something you would expect for mid-September.

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS showing something you would expect for mid-September.

Yes,even in average or below average seasons you normally see what GFS shows in different areas.

[northjaxpro]

Well, can we generate just one decent CV cyclone this season. The hostile conditions all season long out in the tropical Eastern Atlantic has just absolutely seriously debilitated all of these waves.

We shall see if one of these can develop into a healthy cyclone out there later this month.

[Riptide]

If things turn out verbatim per the 12z GFS, the season may inevitably end up slightly above average. Euro is onboard for the second E.Atl system on the GFS.

[cycloneye]

This is how 12z GFS ends 16 days out.

[windnrain]

16 days... that's a loooong time, lol.

[PTrackerLA]

I think I counted 4 gulf TC's in the 12z GFS not including Dolly . All this tells me is that it could be a favored area for development the next 2 weeks and we should keep a close eye on it.

[blp]

12z GFS also shows barely any Ridge in the Central and Eastern Atlantic past 7 days. I think it continues to have its right bias of over intensifying systems and weakening the ridge too quickly.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS also shows barely any Ridge in the Central and Eastern Atlantic past 7 days. I think it continues to have its right bias of over intensifying systems and weakening the ridge too quickly.

Yeah I think are right. I think the overall take from the global models is that things could become more favorable across the Atlantic basin (MDR included) in the next week or two....where these cyclones end up going and how strong is too early to say.

[ronjon]

Looks like the GFS is forecasting a monsoon trough to set up over the western caribbean/BOC in about a weeks time and last an entire week - hence the multiple vortices that it spits out in the later forecasting period. Should it occur, things may get interesting for us GOMers.

[Alyono]

GFS shows 3 more Gulf systems through the next 16 days, including 2 powerful ones

[blp]

I don't know about you pro-mets, but I'm starting to look only at the Euro for genesis and general pattern recognition.

Let me tell you if I was not so into watching the tropics I would not bother with any other model. Outside of professionals and our group of enthusiasts who want to track the genesis process their really is no reason to show the public any other model because once it does have a system properly initialized it is rock solid and proven time and time again to be the most reliable with track. Cristobal was a perfect example when all the other models were flopping it stayed consistent.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I've been wiped off the map by the GFS many of times. Good the model is only good up to 96hrs. After that it's all for entertainment.