ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon is finding a weak LLC down near 21.8N/96.4W. The northern center may be dissipating. Dolly could have several weak centers rotating around a broad low. Pathetic-looking storm...
Just saw the NHC public advisory putting the center at 22N/96.5W. Recon did not find a center at 22N, though. It is definitely south of there:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0305A-DOLLY.png
Just saw the NHC public advisory putting the center at 22N/96.5W. Recon did not find a center at 22N, though. It is definitely south of there:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0305A-DOLLY.png
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Vortex says 21.7N / 96.4W. Northern center is dissipating.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yet another center found near 22.1N/96.8W - that's 33nm NW of the first center found near 21.7N/96.4W. No way it's the same center unless it's moving NW at 30 kts. Looks like multiple weak vortices. Another one is dissipating up near 23N.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yet another center near 21.5N/96.3W. They're all over the place!
0 likes
Interesting to see what they find in the NE quad under the convection if they make it there.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2016
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It sure looks like the center is reforming SW. Convection is wrapping around it too in that area.
Recon is finding lower pressures than at the vortex NW of where the last VM was sent...I think the center is somewhere in the BOC...pick a place...any place.
Recon is finding lower pressures than at the vortex NW of where the last VM was sent...I think the center is somewhere in the BOC...pick a place...any place.
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2016
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Yet another center near 21.5N/96.3W. They're all over the place!
She's keeping her options open
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Too many centers to keep track of. Just move ashore, Dolly! Euro indicates something interesting in the Gulf at day 10.
0 likes
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not too much time before landfall, but appears to my eyes that shear has definitely decreased. Notice storm tops now beginning to move in anticyclonic nature north of the "center"
0 likes
Anything I post is my personal opinion and should not used for any type of planning or lifesaving reasons. Please refer to National Weather Service forecasts.
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The convection looks like it was getting ready for business. You can see a vortex vigorously spinning while diving SW into Tampico.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Love Pasch's 5pm disco... Very humble in his uncertainty... Very professional...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2422
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The center reformation is also going to allow for more rain to impact this area. Earlier, the NHC was anticipating 10 inches in some locations. They have upgraded that to 15 inches now:
The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:Love Pasch's 5pm disco... Very humble in his uncertainty... Very professional...
Agreed a very professional discussion. Some snippets:
Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.
With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt
0 likes
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests