Possible new wave over africa? (Is Invest 90L)

[WPBWeather]

Looks fairly serious on the TC probability chart:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... FP_048.gif

And something crawling up the East coast on the UKM too.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_50.gif

[gatorcane]

Latest saved IR image from NHC website as it close to emerging into the Eastern Atlantic:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles in pretty good agreement as to where they think this system will be in around 1 week which is east of the Leewards. Doesn't look like anything too strong but the ensembles are not killing it off either:

[timmeister]

The SAL looks pronounced to the west of pouch 027L. I don't see how it's going to develop with all that dry air ahead of it, especially if it gains latitude as the models suggest.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows a low but is trending weaker, 5-day forecast below with a 1012MB low between the Lesser Antilles and Africa:

[gatorcane]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
tomorrow. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this system through early next week while it
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[YoshiMike]

LOL this is giving me false hopes because it looks like it already has a center it is rotating around xD

Here is an HTML5 floater loop that shows this wave nearing the west African coast. It has lost some convection but structure looks pretty decent:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

What is SAL? satellite?

(about the rotation, idk if it really is, just saying it looks like it)

[timmeister]

What is SAL? satellite?

SAL=Saharan Air Layer

The yellow, orange and red colors you see on the map depicts dry air that can be sucked into the circulation and impede development.

[YoshiMike]

Oh, gotcha, well, if that happens, then i guess it means more safe people! hurricanes are so beautiful but so destructive. I want them to form but don't want them to hit people lol

[gatorcane]

Latest image showing this pouch near the west coast of Africa and some new convection firing just west of the center of the broad low:

[YoshiMike]

just the shape of it is scaring me

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have any idea of when this could be tagged an Invest?

[YoshiMike]

just found this, thought it was worth posting

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_Atlantic.html

Does anyone have any idea of when this could be tagged an Invest?

I have no idea but i think within 3 days in my personal opinion. WITHIN is the keyword here

[gatorcane]

Below is how the 18Z FIM-9 ends. Looks like a strong tropical wave, maybe a depression, heading W to WNW east of the Northern Leewards around 1 week from now.

The FIM-9 does show some development, possibly a low-end tropical storm, while this pouch is in the East Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

And yet the NHC says "Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this system through early next week"? They must be dying for something to track cause I seriously don't know how this will ever survive the always hostile MDR.

[WPBWeather]

And yet the NHC says "Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this system through early next week"? They must be dying for something to track cause I seriously don't know how this will ever survive the always hostile MDR.

You know, statements with ALWAYS or NEVER are really very silly in weather discussions. Even the Pro Mets slip with this too common mistake, which does not add to anyone's credibility.

[gatorcane]

And yet the NHC says "Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some development of this system through early next week"? They must be dying for something to track cause I seriously don't know how this will ever survive the always hostile MDR.

http://i57.tinypic.com/spvo7s.jpg

The NHC doesn't just want something to track.

The map you posted doesn't reflect the situation a few days from now out there, only the past 24 hours. Take a look at the 72 hour 18Z GFS shear map below and you will see it builds an anti-cyclone right over top of this pouch (note the clockwise flow on top of the 1009MB low just W of the Cape Verde islands) which is good for development. In fact as soon as this pouch moves off the coast through early next week, these upper-level winds look conducive for development as this anticyclone moves west in tandem with this pouch. I think the biggest problems for this pouch will be the SAL out there and the sinking air but the upper-level winds don't appear to be a problem:

[somethingfunny]

Shear is always changing and shear forecasts are notoriously fickle.

[blp]

So the others models Navgem, Ukmet, Fimm are developing this pouch versus the Euro and GFS which fizzle this one out and develop the second.

[TheStormExpert]

So the others models Navgem, Ukmet, Fimm are developing this pouch versus the Euro and GFS which fizzle this one out and develop the second.

GFS briefly develops it before fizzling it out in the Central MDR. Euro I believe only develops the second wave.