Global model runs discussion

[Bizzles]

18Z GFS simulated IR image shows a very stormy Western Caribbean this weekend...also note the disturbance east of the CV islands it develops and the monster wave rolling off Africa:

That. Is a sweet wave. So the little guy out in front of this monster wave mabye 27L?

[Alyono]

the Gulf is where anything will come from of any significance. Not the Cape Verde area. The models are quite clear on that

[Senobia]

GFS shows recurving storms with a system moving into central America.

edit..shows minimal ridgeing so recurve of any system down there is a good bet especially if forms at that latitude.

Graphics?

[Senobia]

GFS shows a Caribbean system as soon as this weekend. Looks like a TD or a weak TS

And the models take it where?

[Steve]

Hey Alyono,

are we talking about a wave or waves interacting with a surface trough possibly spinning up in the West Carribean or Yucatan areas? I know the GFS MSLP keeps wanting to send a triple shot of "lows" into the Western Gulf, Western Gulf and now Northeastern Gulf. And some have said a monsoon/gyre might set up down that way which I guess could also spawn cyclonic energy. So if I understand where you are going, innocuous waves juice up the pattern and the possible resulting spin(s) is where we would have potential tropical genesis vs. threats forming in the far Eastern Atlantic? Thanks.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro still develops the second wave to emerge.



Hanging on at 192 hours, plus something running up the east coast.

[gatorcane]

Interesting setup with the long-range 12Z ECMWF which shows a tropical cyclone heading WNW with large ridge off to the NW (Bermuda High):

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't develop anything though.

[blp]

:uarrow: Doesn't develop anything though.

That image Gator posted does shows a Tropical Storm or at least a Depression with a Ridge building in on top so something to keep an eye on indeed.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: Doesn't develop anything though.

That image Gator posted does shows a Tropical Storm or at least a Depression with a Ridge building in on top so something to keep an eye on indeed.

Yes it does. The UKM also has been showing something mid Atlantic and now up the East coast for a few runs now.

[gatorcane]

the long-range CFS model is not showing any East Coast troughing like we have seen most of this summer for the entire month of September. Of course this is a very long-range model and doesn't mean that is what actually happens.

The questions will be whether this verifies and, if so, whether there will be any cyclones out there that may pose a threat with such a pattern?

[TheStormExpert]

Another question, is the Western Atlantic still as favorable as it was earlier in the season like when Arthur was present and such?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS brings back the Western GOM Hurricane in the long-range, 264 hours below:

[gatorcane]

18Z FIM-9, 168 hours shows a broad low in the NW Caribbean heading NW...and a system off the NE United States coastline heading NE:

[hurricanetrack]

Here is text output from UKMET re: mid-Atlantic storm:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.0N 80.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2014 32.0N 80.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2014 32.1N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2014 33.4N 78.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2014 34.8N 76.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2014 37.6N 74.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@Gatorcane hope that doesn't verify, just got rid of the last of the mess (submerged debris from the storm surge) from Arthur in my canal a couple of weeks ago. We do not need, nor want, another tropical system this season up here.

[blp]

00z GFS flips has the first storm as the stronger one of the two. Keeps both systems on similar track that is also similar to Cristobal and Bertha except they don't enter carribean. It is long range and it is the GFS which is not doing best right now of the models.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS flips has the first storm as the stronger one of the two. Keeps both systems on similar track that is also similar to Cristobal and Bertha. Now that would be something, to bad it is long range and it is the GFS which is not doing best right now of the models.

the ridge bridging as its recurving is something thats being shown on the 0ZGFS and produces a short stall NE of the Bahamas but that would be one of those situations where you wouldn't want to see the Ridge bridge over any faster or it would go west to WNW which who knows as it might show that in the furture similar to the 12zEuro

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[Alyono]

6Z GFS has a Carla AND a Betsy at the SAME TIME

[srainhoutx]

6Z GFS has a Carla AND a Betsy at the SAME TIME

Shhh. No one wants to believe those unusually low pressures across the Western Caribbean and Western Gulf we've been watching for a week will produce anything...