Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean

[gatorcane]

The GFS model continues to show a sharp increase in convection over the SW Caribbean spreading north through the weekend. Looking down there today, we can see some deep convection starting. Could we see some possible development?

Here is the 12Z Simulated IR image, 66 hours from now, saved image:


Current IR Satellite, saved image:

[northjaxpro]

It's possible. There has been model support showing something developing and moving northwest and then into the BOC area in the next few days. Will watch the region closely.

[bohaiboy]

Our private weather service here also notes to keep a careful watch on this region. They put development late next week. They also mention possible development from the front currently swinging down.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS simulated IR rolling now is showing the current area of disturbed weather flaring up quite a bit this weekend:

[TheStormExpert]

No way any sort of TC will form with this kind of screaming shear. Try Eastern GoM, or off the SE Coast.

[YoshiMike]

why havent i noticed this?

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has this area from the 18z run going into Texas and the 0zrun heading into Tampico so its still way too far out to see where this one goes or if it even develops

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[Hammy]

No way any sort of TC will form with this kind of screaming shear. Try Eastern GoM, or off the SE Coast.

The models aren't showing anything immediate, more like 3-5 days, which means that in all likelihood the pattern will change by then.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like we will need to rename this thread NW Caribbean because it does look like this area will make it there.

[tropicwatch]

There is some heavy duty wind shear in that area right now.

[NDG]

Models show that ULL move NW while UL heights rise across the central and western Caribbean this weekend. A lot of that shear on the map above is more of high shear relatively speaking because of the strong low level jet across the central Caribbean Sea. So don't look for anything to get organize at the surface across the central Caribbean because of the strong low level jet, it will have to be way west in the extreme SW Caribbean into the BOC, IMO.

[tropicwatch]

"SW Caribbean into the BOC"

Did you mean NW?

[NDG]

"SW Caribbean into the BOC"

Did you mean NW?

SW section of the NW Caribbean, is what I meant.

[USTropics]

This is what NDG is referring to visually from the 06z GFS run. This is forecasted shear in 72 hours showing lowering values in the NW Caribbean:

[Alyono]

GFS has development at 144 hours

[Alyono]

sends it into Mexico and then the monsoon trough spins up another system

[somethingfunny]

The Canadian is migrating this over to the EPAC

[Sanibel]

The disturbance appears to be EPAC bound.

[gatorcane]

Convection increasing big time as the GFS model projected...

[Frank P]

Convection increasing big time as the GFS model projected...

Looks to be going more northerly than west... overall looks NNW to NW to me... this may not make it to the EPAC....