ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[cycloneye]

All about models here.

[cycloneye]

As Alyono said at the global models thread,90L looks like Betsy on the track. Yes is 90L

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, 06z gets 90L trapped under a ridge over the east coast USA and turns it back toward central Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

Of course this far out it is likely to end up anywhere between Maine and the Yucatan if it doesn't go fishing in the North Atlantic!

[blp]

Model concensus is good with this system so far. The GFS, CMC, UKmet, FIM, Navgem all have this surviving past 7 days. The Euro kills this off within 72hrs followed by the stronger second wave which takes over.

[jlauderdal]

As Alyono said at the global models thread,90L looks like Betsy on the track. Yes is 90L

oh boy, another florida hit for the gfs, thing loves florida....maine or barabaods be on alert

[TheStormExpert]

Model concensus is good with this system so far. The GFS, CMC, UKmet, FIM, Navgem all have this surviving past 7 days. The Euro kills this off within 72hrs followed by the stronger second wave which takes over.

I'm leaning towards the Euro. Things are way too hostile for models like the GFS solution to even verify!

[gatorcane]

From what I can tell, the overnight runs of the global models became a little more bullish on development. The ECMWF is the least bullish. Most global models show at least a tropical storm or depression heading west over the MDR. NHC increase to 40% for development within 5 days makes sense to account for the slightly more bullish models.

FIM-9 has become more bullish, 168 hours below:


UKMET more bullish too:

[gatorcane]

06Z FIM very similar to the 00Z FIM, 168 hours below:

[Alyono]

12Z to the south. similar intensity as 6Z, except as it approaches Florida, it dissipates

[gatorcane]

12Z to the south. similar intensity as 6Z, except as it approaches Florida, it dissipates

Yeah true but the take away from the GFS is lots of Atlantic ridging and favorable enough conditions for this disturbance to make the journey across.

[Nimbus]

On Sept 10th historically there is a hurricane swirling somewhere in the Atlantic about 2 out of 3 years.
There is a little more moisture along the track now than earlier this year so this could be the right wave.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS long-range at 240 hours heading west into the Bahamas. GFS has sped up this pouch on it's journey across the Atlantic:

[Siker]

Haha, looks like it gets sheared apart by the Gulf brew's anticyclone.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM is more bullish and into the NE Leewards as a tropical storm in 168 hours. It later goes on to make this a hurricane passing east of the Bahamas in the long-range.

[somethingfunny]

Anything on the GFS beyond 192 hours is as likely as a lottery ticket. The final high-resolution frame and the pattern taking shape on it are enough to cause significant notice:





Here's the 12z Canadian.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z NAVGEM run ends with the system NE of the Leewards heading NW:

[cycloneye]

Keep in mind this is the 12z Canadian.You know why I say that.

[somethingfunny]

Won't have the 12z ECMWF for another hour or two, but 00z focused on a wave to come later (still developing something, which is notable with this model)

[Hurricaneman]

Im looking at the models and track wise to the pattern analogs are

Andrew 1992
Betsy 1965
Frances 2004

those stick out like a sore thumb and while I don't know what the intensity will be or track or even if it will develop but the modeled pattern is pretty close to those storms which started a recurve only to have the ridge bridge and fling them west so this will bear watching if the models keep with the pattern that they're showing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products