Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean

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Bizzles
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

#41 Postby Bizzles » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:25 am

rolltide wrote:Question for Pro Mets. Why do you think the NHC has not declared this area an invest? What do you think they are seeing or not seeing?

Thanks

I was wondering the same thing.
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#42 Postby Kludge » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:28 am

Alyono wrote:Bastardi should know that this area is likely to persist for several days in the southwest Caribbean


He's focusing on the area east of Florida, which he's been talking about since Monday.
He seems to stick with his early "ideas", and dismiss most everything that wasn't one of them.

I would think that if you're right, and it doesn't move much in the next day or so, a more northward movement may be possible.
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#43 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:33 am

The chance of development off of the East Coast is very low. Bastardi needs to drop his bias. One reason he is not taken seriously is his known biases
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#44 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:13 am

GFS has development at 120 hours
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#45 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:29 am

and the GFS keeps it south of the Bay of Campeche now
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#46 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:57 am

Alyono wrote:and the GFS keeps it south of the Bay of Campeche now


Do you think it will go into the Pacific as some of the models suggest?
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#47 Postby wyq614 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:35 pm

It looks really juicy now and convection is strong and persistent, but I really can't see what will bring it to EPAC as it appears to me that is slowly moving towards NW to NNW?
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#48 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 05, 2014 6:17 pm

wyq614 wrote:It looks really juicy now and convection is strong and persistent, but I really can't see what will bring it to EPAC as it appears to me that is slowly moving towards NW to NNW?


Looking at the latest vis and IR sat loops the system overall continues to move to the NW in my unprofessional opinion... I've seen a lot less systems get marked as an INVEST... wondering why this has not been declared as of yet... ?
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

#49 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:56 pm

Appears to be a twist but it doesn't mean anything if it doesn't develop.
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#50 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:30 pm

What is a twist? do you mean there is some circulation?
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

#51 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:46 pm

Yes, a twist is the antecedent condition of a circulation......MGC
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

#52 Postby HeeBGBz » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:47 am

It looks like it is about to enter the GOM with some potential.
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#53 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:16 am

Lost a lot of its convection over night but does appear to be making its way to the GOM.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

#54 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 06, 2014 12:58 pm

There might be a weak forming center near southern Belize but I'm not sure.


A twist is that curling that you see in the clouds that suggests something forming. Eventually it turns into a clear rotating center.
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#55 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:26 pm

GFS now moves the system into the southern BOC and again indicates development

It appears development will occur if the system slides far enough north to reach the BOC or if it remains over land
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#56 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:15 am

more models now indicating this will make it to the far southern BOC. May see another Dolly like system out of this
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#57 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:24 am

Editing title to reflect new location of area which is now in the NW Caribbean.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean

#58 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:50 pm

There's more convection in the Caribbean. At this time of year any convection down there should be watched.
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#59 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:09 pm

There is a lot of wind shear across the Caribbean. June like levels of it, it's abnormally high. Convection is probably shear induced. If anything wants to become of it, must head north out of the Carib.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean

#60 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:24 pm

Same upper level low that is providing shear to the wave north of Hispaniola apparently is providing the lift.
Looks like it would head into Belize if it developed.
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