Tropical Wave East of 90L emerging West Africa (is 91L)

[gatorcane]

This wave has some solid model support from both the GFS and ECMWF. Here it is blowing up behind 90L tonight and should emerge off the West Coast of Africa in about 3-4 days from now:



12Z ECMWF:


18Z GFS:

[YoshiMike]

oh wow, another one already?

[ninel conde]

they have all dried up so far. can it find moisture?

[Hurricaneman]

they have all dried up so far. can it find moisture?

If the Euro is anything to go by then yes it will almost dry up but the GFS blows it up but as we all know by now the GFS loves to blow it up outside 72hrs so anything beyond that for the GFS the last year or 2 has been for entertainment purposes only

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[meriland23]

Almost major hurricane long range GFS. GFS keeps moving this closer to land. Another one behind that even.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 240 hour position (blob on the left):

[Alyono]

will likely not develop due to the SAL

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Sunday. Environmental conditions would appear to support some
development of this system early next week while it moves to the
west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

With the ECMWF and GFS still both bullish, you got to think this one develops. We shall see...

18Z GFS 120 hours from now, near the Cape Verde islands and it looks like it has plenty of moisture to work with:

[cycloneye]

My question about development of this wave is why it has better chance to develop than 90L as it will also track towards the dry air in the Tropical Atlantic?

[Gustywind]

My question about development of this wave is why it has a more chance to develop than 90L as it will also track towards the dry air in the Tropical Atlantic?

Agree with you, i'm surprised about that too! Maybe the SAL concentration should not be too bad for this one?! Just my two cents idea Well Cycloneye, I'm sure that our friends will bring some clearence ... as usual

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is just like the current invest. Percentages kept going higher for long range development while over land, only to drastically drop when it got into the Atlantic and the dry air sucked the life out of it. Same ole story, different day.

[blp]

I am putting my faith in the Euro this time. I know it has its problems with cyclogensis but so far in the Atlantic it has handled these waves well while the GFS has been just awful. To me 90l will be the sacrificial wave.

It also keeps advertising strong ridging.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Sunday. Environmental conditions could support slow
development of this system early next week while it moves toward the
west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Bizzles]

you have to figure w/ wave after wave there has to be some impact to the desert that is the MDR?

[Alyono]

SAL comes from the east. Thus, waves do not moisten the tropical Atlantic. The dry air is re-enforced by the successive SAL surges

[Ntxw]

SAL comes from the east. Thus, waves do not moisten the tropical Atlantic. The dry air is re-enforced by the successive SAL surges

Well said. I think one of the most used cliches is waves moisten up for the ones beyond it. You'd think 3 months of good waves coming off of Africa would be enough. It is the upper pattern and wind flow that determines moist or dry air.

[gatorcane]

GFS and ECMWF continue to be bullish on this wave...development chances look higher than 30% to me within 5 days and I think we will see the NHC increase this gradually over the coming days:

120 hours ECMWF 00Z:


120 hours GFS 00Z:

[blp]

12z GFS continues to overstate the intensity. Has it as a hurricane in 96hrs. Very frustrating to watch the GFS this year.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014090612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_16.png

[gatorcane]

Up to 40%

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system early next week
while it moves toward the west or west-northwest over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.