EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 24:11:13 N Lon : 112:53:58 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 953.1mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees

[CrazyC83]

I can understand not fiddling with warnings at night, since awareness is lower. Look at Humberto 2007, they didn't issue a Hurricane Warning until 12:15 am, when it was practically useless. 9:30 pm is not as bad (local time) but not ideal still.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 948.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

I can understand not fiddling with warnings at night, since awareness is lower. Look at Humberto 2007, they didn't issue a Hurricane Warning until 12:15 am, when it was practically useless. 9:30 pm is not as bad (local time) but not ideal still.

BCS is on the mountain time, not Pacific.

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

Eye seems to have become ragged. Forget 6.0 for now.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 24:09:49 N Lon : 112:59:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 948.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -58.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees

[supercane4867]

The eye improved a bit in recent frame but not as warm as earlier

[Yellow Evan]

The eye improved a bit in recent frame but not as warm as earlier

Agreed. Warm enough for a major though.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 24:12:09 N Lon : 113:02:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 948.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.6 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -58.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees

[bamajammer4eva]

Didn't see anything about this posted here for the San Diego area: A storm with a similar name in an El Nino yr on Sept 5-6 1978 with a slightly different angle of attack

1978: Hurricane Norman recurved with the remnants tracking into Southern California from the south southwest. Rainfall exceeded three inches in the mountains on this day and on 9/6. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78. The Angels’ home game at Anaheim Stadium against the Texas Rangers was rained out.

[Kingarabian]

Guys the main thing is that the super cold tops are almost completely wrapped around the eye.

If that solid ring wraps and the eye warms then it will be a strong major.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Didn't see anything about this posted here for the San Diego area: A storm with a similar name in an El Nino yr on Sept 5-6 1978 with a slightly different angle of attack

1978: Hurricane Norman recurved with the remnants tracking into Southern California from the south southwest. Rainfall exceeded three inches in the mountains on this day and on 9/6. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78. The Angels’ home game at Anaheim Stadium against the Texas Rangers was rained out.

By September 1978, the El Nino was gone. And Norman was a bit more to the west.

[Yellow Evan]

I like how neither the adv, nor both TWO's are out, yet it is almost 3z.

[Yellow Evan]

It did it!

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES NORBERT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...62 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE
SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[Kingarabian]

Yellow Evan this is your storm .


Woo Norbet. I hope it ONLY brings much needed rain to soCal.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan this is your storm .


Woo Norbet. I hope it ONLY brings much needed rain to soCal. And

I guess Iselle was yours Now it's my turn.

Most of the SW is in a drought, not just S Cal. It just gets the most attention since one they crop crops there and two more people live their.

[Macrocane]

It did it. Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maui forecasted it would be a major hurricane since the beggining athough they backed off later

Norbert is the 7th major hurricane of the Central and East Pacific season as a whole, the most since 1997.
Norbert is the 6th major hurricane of the East Pacífic season alone, the highest since 1998.

[Yellow Evan]

:eek: It did it. Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maui forecasted it would be a major hurricane since the beggining athough they backed off later

Norbert is the 7th major hurricane of the Central and East Pacific season as a whole, the most since 1997.
Norbert is the 6th major hurricane of the East Pacífic season alone, the highest since 1998.

Ryan Maue never forecast anything beyond 85 knots. If we get our 8th major, we'd have a first since 1994.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 24:14:31 N Lon : 113:06:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 948.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees