2014 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

EPAC gets its 7th major as Norbert joins the list, poppin like popcorn they are.

What's the record for the most majors in the EPAC?

I believe 1992 with 10. That season holds most of EPAC seasonal records storms, hurricanes, and major.


May need some info check from Yellow Evan. I'm not sure how cphc storms are counted but it should be

[NDG]

EPAC gets its 7th major as Norbert joins the list, poppin like popcorn they are.

What's the record for the most majors in the EPAC?

I believe 1992 with 10. That season holds most of EPAC seasonal records storms, hurricanes, and major.

Thanks, I just looked up that season.
Interesting that back in 1992 the central Pacific (near Hawaii) produced 2 major hurricanes, this year the central Pacific has only produced one major hurricane (what I mean by produced is that they become majors in the Central Pacific near Hawaii)
So in another words 1992 had 8 hurricanes that became majors within the extreme eastern Pacific region, this year so far Norbert became the 6th Major in the extreme eastern Pacific, with a developing El Nino compared to 1992 that went into a cool neutral ENSO by this time I would not be surprise if we see the EPAC come close to the record of 1992 if not at least tie it, IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

What a season!!! The seventh major hurricane by the first week in September. Wow.

[euro6208]

What a season!!! The seventh major hurricane by the first week in September. Wow.

so highest number of majors in epac/cpac is 10...is this the highest in the western hemisphere?

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located a short distance offshore of the Baja California
Sur.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions in this region should be conducive
for gradual development throughout this time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF develops Odile rapidly into a hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

06z HWRF develops Odile rapidly into a hurricane

XThe GFS on the other hand is calling for a weaker system as of last chec. They show a more powerful hurricane near MX in around 10 days.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located a short distance offshore of the Baja California
Sur.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions in this region should be conducive
for gradual development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS:



Make Odile another hurricane. Yes another.



Now has Odile and Polo coactive, with Polo a major near MX



Brings Polo onshore as a powerful hurricane

12z GFs much more conservative, keeping Odile weak and has Polo moving ashore as a TS.

[Yellow Evan]

Models have backed off of this quite a bit. They were blowing this up quite a bit earlier, now barley develop it. As for 12z GFS, track is set for the next 10 days. It should form around 110-115W, meander, then drift NNE to NE, and then it'll either move onshore or having it moving W. Shear will be a serious issue however, it seems, as that is why the GFS likely keeps it broad and unorganized. Even the HWRF doesn't do much with it until landfall. However, the 18z GFS has it keeping west with a new low forming to its east and being weak. After the 94C fiasco (which occurred during the passage of a Kelvin Wave), I'd lean towards the 12z here. Right now, the area where it is expected to form is very hostile, with strong shear and a ton of dry air. It is worth noting though that models have struggled with shear all season (which in terms of intensity and track, have taken a major set back this season). According to Ventrice's site, We do have a Kelvin Wave coming in a day or so, and shear can change easily, so that increases it's formation chances considerably.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 6 2014

Corrected to describe existing disturbance first.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located a short distance offshore of Baja California Sur.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorm centered about 1200 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for some
development of this system by mid-week while it remains nearly
stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions in this region should be conducive
for gradual development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS developing Tropical Storm Ana in the next 6 days, crossing the dateline as a strong tropical storm which RI's and becomes an intense typhoon at 944 mb.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't buy that 0/20 system. Gives me flasbacks of 94C.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS makes Odile stronger than any previous runs

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has a long-lived Hurricane Odile in the 00z run, and deepens to 975 mb (or lower) which may mean big ACE additions are set for the Eastern Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS makes Odile powerful



18z HWRF is closer to land and weaker. GFS is more OTS.



GFS also makes Polo near the MX coast.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located offshore of the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about
1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for
some development of this system by mid-week while this disturbance
remains nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ntxw]

Posted in Atlantic thread, but worth noting here too. Could be a good CCKW passage in the EPAC in about a week. May see multiple developments.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely explains the more aggressive models.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS makes this quite powerful now. Here we go again.