ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[gatorcane]

GEM is still bullish. Here is how the run ends with a 1000MB TS turning WSW in the long-range, 240 hour graphic below:

[ronjon]

I think the pattern out 7-10 days is one of blocking with a deep long wave trough over the midwest and strong high pressure along the east coast. Unlike the entire summer, appears like the torugh is setting up about 20 degrees further west in longitude in addition to not being as progressive. We'll see if that forecast pans out.

[Steve H.]

Euro much more bullish on the 12Z run

[gatorcane]

Euro much more bullish on the 12Z run

Nope, you are looking at the wave behind 90l. It eventually dissipates 90L into an open wave though we do note that it brings the wave all the way into the area east of the Bahamas and turns it west.

[Steve H.]

Okay. your right - just saw it come into the picture at 240 hours. Can't be 90L

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 12Z guidance, most models bring it to an area just NE or E of the Leewards in about 5 days time. Except the ECMWF, they all hold this invest together enough for there to be some low present. The big question will be will this invest find some favorable conditions at some point on it's journey west across the Atlantic?

Let's see if future model runs like we saw with the GEM (though not a surprise since it is the GEM), start showing development at some point down the road further west.

[NDG]

I can't imagine this system if it remains at least as a strong open wave and makes it to area near the Bahamas/north of Hispaniola for it not to organize in this area, this has been the hot spot for development and strengthening so far this season. Just like Bertha I think eventually the models will start trending towards development and or intensification in this area over time.

[TheStormExpert]

I can't imagine this system if it remains at least as a strong open wave and makes it to area near the Bahamas/north of Hispaniola for it not to organize in this area, this has been the hot spot for development and strengthening so far this season. Just like Bertha I think eventually the models will start trending towards development and or intensification in this area over time.

Don't forget Cristobal!

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance, today's models are back to showing more Western Atlantic ridging in the long-range:

[USTropics]

18Z Guidance, today's models are back to showing more Western Atlantic ridging in the long-range:

For those who may not know, the AEMN (the purple spaghetti plot that bends back west in the Bahamas) is the GFS ensemble consensus and the AVNO (the light blue spaghetti plot) is the GFS operational before the truncation.

[SFLcane]

Models were still ran for it as 06z this morning...

[YoshiMike]

Hey invest 90L, lets NOT hit anyone if you get strong okay?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS position of this invest 168 hours from now entering the SE Bahamas - big hurricane in the Central Atlantic too

[TheStormExpert]

Big trough off the East Coast. No strong ridging at tall like many on here have been advertising for days.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: Big trough off the East Coast. No strong ridging at tall like many on here have been advertising for days.

Would definitely recurve anything significant nearing the southeast.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles. Note several of them kill this off pretty quickly:

[SFLcane]

apparently they did run 12z models...

[cycloneye]

SFLcane,they ran the 18z.

[SFLcane]

Ah...thanks luis sfwd image apparently had not update.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: Big trough off the East Coast. No strong ridging at tall like many on here have been advertising for days.

Thinking the same thing myself. There is a pretty strong cold front forecast to affect a lot of the US late next week. Guess people are counting on the super long range models to be correct