ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Glorified wave.

Does not look like a wave at all and that ASCAT pass showed nothing definitive at all. We have to wait for better data.

what you mean not wave?

[Hammy]

Looks like the system is getting severely elongated and flattening out, which would explain now why the convection is on the decline.

[ozonepete]

Glorified wave.

http://i.imgur.com/uhPQpwO.jpg

Does not look like a wave at all and that ASCAT pass showed nothing definitive at all. We have to wait for better data.

what you mean not wave?

Oh, and waves don't have cirrus outflow and banding such as this.

[floridasun78]

i see put dry air starting take affect and shear coming in now

[ozonepete]

i see put dry air starting take affect and shear coming in now

Where do you see that? Can you post an image?

[floridasun78]

look at loop you see dry air heard and shear ne of leedward islands http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir2.html

[floridasun78]

that why outlook say this This system is moving into an unfavorable environment

[ozonepete]

that why outlook say this This system is moving into an unfavorable environment

That environment is 2 days away.

[Hammy]

90L sort of looks like Dorian last year with the apparant cirrus outflow but no actual LLC. Appears to be increasingly affected as well by the outflow from the system behind it.

[ozonepete]

Does not have a bright future as far as I can see. It's the dry air out ahead of it (and not SAL) that is the worst part.

[floridasun78]

Does not have a bright future as far as I can see. It's the dry air out ahead of it (and not SAL) that is the worst part.

i agree other met think it have future let see if get 91l soon

[gatorcane]

90L sort of looks like Dorian last year with the apparant cirrus outflow but no actual LLC. Appears to be increasingly affected as well by the outflow from the system behind it.

The system behind is looks so large it definitely is starting to feel the outflow from that. This invest is definitely on the decline. Looks like the one behind it will be the one to watch.

[floridasun78]

other invest go bye bye

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So much for that, lol.

[floridasun78]

to next invest

[ozonepete]

Though the odds are against this, I think it's way too early to laugh it off. We've been fooled too many times. Let's just wait and see what it does from here.

[ozonepete]

90L sort of looks like Dorian last year with the apparant cirrus outflow but no actual LLC. Appears to be increasingly affected as well by the outflow from the system behind it.

The system behind is looks so large it definitely is starting to feel the outflow from that. This invest is definitely on the decline. Looks like the one behind it will be the one to watch.

The one behind it may definitely be much healthier but no, there is no influence of that following disturbance on this one. They are far enough apart. And it's ridiculous to write this one off yet. It looks like a tropical depression already and probably should have been declared one, and the supposedly bad conditions it will encounter are still far off enough that it could easily be a TS before it reaches those bad conditions.

[bahamaswx]

So much for that, lol.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3W3nZHa.gif[img]

Happily refiring convection overnight.

[ozonepete]

So much for that, lol.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3W3nZHa.gif[img]

Happily refiring convection overnight.

Yes my friend we always have to be vigilant.

[Nimbus]

The first morning visible imagery shows the LLC near 35W 15.2N pretty good plume of convection streaming N.

Dry air shearing in from the SE almost got it, I would estimate central pressure is near 1007 MB's in a very small center.

NHC won't be able to ignore it if that plume keeps growing.