Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES WEST ALLOWING A TUTT TO
RELOCATES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. THE FIRST
WAVE IS CROSSING PR TODAY...THE SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL
BE ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AXIS
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PR AND STREAMERS DOWNWIND
OF EL YUNQUE AND THE SMALL ISLANDS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN CATANO...NORTHERN BAYAMON...TOA BAJA AS WELL AS
AGUADILLA AND VICINITY. NEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTH...WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS UPSTREAM OF THE USVI/PR
BEHIND OF THE WAVE. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO MONA PASSAGE/HISPANOLA TONIGHT...LEAVING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES AND THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL. THEN... ANOTHER WAVE
WILL REACH THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...EXPECT A RELATIVELY
WET PATTERN THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PD SHRA/TSRA W-N PR THIS AFT INCLUDING TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ...
SOME OBSCD MTNS. THEN VFR TONITE/WED MRNG XCP VERY OUTSIDE CHC MVFR
IN ISOLD SHRA. WND SFC-FL200 ESE-SE 14-23 KT BCMG E THIS EVE AND
CONT THRU WED. SHRA INCR TNCM/TKPK WED EVE.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS OF 13-18
KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT THEN IMPROVE FURTHER LATE IN THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CREATE HAZARDS...WHICH WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 60 30 40 50
STT 89 79 90 80 / 50 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO MOVE SOUTH TO WITHIN 300 MILES
OF THE ISLAND BY SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
BY WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE APPEARS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AREA-WIDE AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FORCE
A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MIGRATED WEST
INTO THE NORTHERN OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. TOPS REACHED
50 KFT AT LEAST ONCE. SHOWERS WERE SPARSE TONIGHT BUT A FEW MORE
HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN. A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING OUT OF THE LAST WAVE
PASSAGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH DUE TO FORCING FROM A
700 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT AND HELP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THEN
AFTER A BRIEF INTERMISSION...MOISTURE BEGINS ARRIVING IN THE AREA
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 18 NORTH 54 WEST AND
STRETCHING TO NEAR 11 NORTH 57 WEST. CURRENTLY MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE BEST ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FRIDAY IN PUERTO
RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THAT MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHING MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN BEGINS ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
NO MORE THAN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL SITES TODAY. WIND GENERALLY FROM
EAST AT 10 TO 16 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF TSRA FOR TJMZ AND VCTS FOR TJBQ TIL AROUND 03/21Z
WITH MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DRIVE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 78 / 50 40 40 40
STT 89 79 89 79 / 30 50 50 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...12Z GFS PUSHES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL.
HIGH MOISTURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE AT 700 MB WITH ANOTHER SURGE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS LATER...BUT GFS SHOWS THE WAVE FLATTENING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD MERGE THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER USVI THU
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYLIGHT ON THU. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOW LACKING BUT INCREASING MAYBE A LITTLE. WOULD THINK
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ITS JET WOULD GIVE
CONVECTION A BOOST BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DOING SO. THE WAVE
MOVES MORE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ON THU...PROBABLY WILL HELP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN. SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES
SHOW A QUITE SOLID BAND IN IT OF VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.25
INCHES...DUE TO ARRIVE AFTER PR PROBABLY HAS HAD A SUNNY MORNING.
CONVECTION FIGURES TO BE WIDESPREAD IN AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUES ON FRI THOUGH IF WE BEGIN A DAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS CONVECTION WOULD BE LESS. WILL KEEP THE
NUMEROUS ON FRI AS IS FOR NOW. SAT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY DAY
THROUGH TUE WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS GFS SUGGESTS
OTHERS WOULD BE ABOVE. SO POPS MAY REMAIN HIGH EVERYDAY GIVEN
THAT MODEL FLUCTUATIONS CAST DOUBT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FOR TJMZ THIS
AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS UNTIL 03/22Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AT 5-10 KNOTS. PASSING SHRA OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS EXCEPT TJMZ AND MAYBE TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PR/USVI NEAR 30N WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT TRADE WINDS A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS THEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AS THE TRADES AND SEAS DROP OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 40 50 40 70
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 60 70 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST THU SEP 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS
TO FADE AS A LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVES SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN FADES IN
PLACE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND FLOW TURNS TO THE
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE PATTERN AND WIND FLOW THEN REMAIN VERY WEAK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ENVELOPE OF GOOD
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST FLOW THEN CONTINUES UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER NIGHT IN THE LOCAL WATERS
EXCEPT WEST AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS ALSO MOVED INTO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND INTO SAINT CROIX.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT. MOISTURE COULD BE SEEN ON THE ANTILLES RADAR
MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS ALSO HAS
A SECOND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY HAS A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE BUT BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A MINIMUM
500 MB TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 8 DEGREES AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY
PRODUCE MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE DAY
BEFORE. ON SUNDAY A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GFS IS ADAMANT ABOUT
RAIN BUT THE WRF SHOWS LOWER POPS. NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TAPERS OFF
DURING THE WEEK...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN RICH IN MOISTURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO SEE A LITTLE MORE
THAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS. AT THIS TIME SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ANYTIME DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AND GENERALLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT IN
PASSING A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF BETTER
MOISTURE DOES HANG SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE AS IT PASSES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THIS MAY NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY RAINS
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM. IF IT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS MORNING...WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHRA IN PROGRESS FOR TKPK...TNCM...TISX AND TJSJ AND BEGINNING
ARND 04/10Z IN TIST. SHOWERS WILL PROPAGATE FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS MAINLAND PR BY MID-MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE TJSJ 04/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ABOVE 28K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT
...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 78 / 50 60 70 40
STT 88 78 88 79 / 60 80 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST FRI SEP 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TUTT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTH AND EAST CARIBBEAN. AT
LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES. A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL
MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR.

IN THE LONG TERM...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THRU LATE TONIGHT. SHRA WILL
MOVE ACROSS PR/USVI AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN POSSIBLY
BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN THE PR/USVI TERMINALS. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE
LIKELY BTWN 05/17-21Z ACROSS WEST PR. E-ESE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT
EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 79 89 80 / 70 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST FRI SEP 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH A TUTT JUST OVER THE BAHAMAS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE OVER LARES...LAS MARIAS...AND ANASCO.

AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND OUT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSING
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE TUTT...IF WE ARE MORE INTO THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE TUTT THEN THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE LIMITED...HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONT ACROSS W PR ...OVR TJMZ
AND VCTY TJBQ AND TJSJ TIL 05/22Z. THEREFORE...MTN TOP OBSCR AND
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS DURG
THE REST OF THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. MOSTLY SCT L/LVL CLDS
BTW FL020-FL050...AND SCT-BKN HIGH LVL CLD BTW FL250-FL300 BEING
STEERED SW ACROSS THE REGION FM THE W AND NW.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CALMING DOWN TO 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
BELOW 18 KNOTS STARTING TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 86 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TUTT
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH WAS
LOCATED NEAR 52 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY...AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR MONDAY...MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE..WILL MAINTAIN
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

FOR MID NEXT WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHILE SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF NEXT WORKWEEK. STAY TUNED.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND NW PR. AS A RESULT...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 18Z-21Z. WX CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ESE WINDS OF 15-25 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED AT 5 FEET OR LESS OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 78 87 77 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning. However,
significant development of this system is not expected due to a
unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands shows some
signs of organization. However, this system is moving into an
unfavorable environment during the next several days, and
development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N30W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N THAT
REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-
38W AND A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF
15N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
30W-33W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SAT SEP 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.THESE SHOWERS WERE GENERATING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.
ALSO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL BING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE
AREA MOST AFFECTED WILL BE THE USVI EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE REST OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR MID NEXT WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHILE SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF NEXT WORKWEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...LIKELY MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJBQ AND POSSIBLE ACROSS AS
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NW-PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
06/21Z. VCSH/VCTS TO THE NORTH OF TJPS UNTIL 06/21Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AT
ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED AT 5 FEET OR LESS OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 77 90 / 60 60 20 20
STT 78 87 77 88 / 60 60 20 20

[abajan]

Our evening newscast stated that there was torrential rainfall which caused flooding in both St. Vincent and St. Lucia last night. According to met officials, it was caused by a trough. I saw some distant lightning in that general vicinity around sunset yesterday. Here's the St. Lucia thread at StormCarib.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SUN SEP 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AT UPPER LEVELS...THROUGHINESS WILL
DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING SAINT CROIX. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS
WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND
OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...LOCAL
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THROUGHINESS MOST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

IN THE LONG TERM...A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH HAS
RECENTLY EMERGED OFF OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PER LATEST NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH IS TOO EARLY TO
KNOW EXACTLY THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WE
ENTER THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...PEOPLE LIVING IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ENCOURAGE TO KEEP MONITORING
THE TROPICS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE FLYING AREA THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULT IN TEMPO PDS OF MVFR CONDS
AT USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU AROUND 07/15Z...AND ACROSS PR
TERMINALS BTWN 07/12Z-07/20Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10-20 KT BELOW 10K FT. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 KT CAN EXPECTED NEAR
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED AT 5 FEET OR LESS OVER MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 60 20 20 10
STT 86 76 90 79 / 60 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave
that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

A small area of low pressure located about 650 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain
unfavorable for significant development during the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA THIS MORNING MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE ANALYZED ON THE 07/1200 UTC AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STOUT PRESENTATION OF
CYCLONIC TURNING STRONGEST IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LEVELS WITHIN
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW 850 MB...IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF CYCLONIC MOTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...ONE NEAR
10N15W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N18W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA THIS MORNING MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE ANALYZED ON THE 07/1200 UTC AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STOUT PRESENTATION OF
CYCLONIC TURNING STRONGEST IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LEVELS WITHIN
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW 850 MB...IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF CYCLONIC MOTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...ONE NEAR
10N15W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N18W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN SEP 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF PR THOUGH
SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALL DAY...ESPECIALLY
ON LAND. PROBABLY HAVE NOT HAD ENOUGH WARMING TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MIMIC/TPW CONFIRMS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS EVENING. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST DRYING WILL BE 900-700
MB BUT IS HARD TO CONFIRM THAT ON CIRA LPW PRODUCTS...LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE SUGGESTING MOST DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
700 MB. BUT THAT WOULD STILL SHALLOW THE CONVECTION AND MAKE THEM
LIGHTER TONIGHT.

DEEP MOISTURE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF LESSER
ANTILLES IS DUE TO ARRIVE MONDAY. CONVECTION THERE HAS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS TOO...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDS THERE MIGHT BE OVER PR/USVI TOMORROW WHICH WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER LAND AGAIN. SO RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FOR TJBQ AND TJPS UNTIL
07/21Z...SIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR FOR TJSJ AFTER 07/20Z. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AT THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25 KT CAN EXPECTED NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN SIGHT WITH WINDS/SEAS TOPPING OUT NEAR
18 KT/5 FT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO STAY
THERE ALBEIT RATHER WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 79 89 / 50 40 10 20
STT 79 87 80 87 / 40 40 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TWO TUTTS/UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL DOMINATE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TUTT TO THE WNW
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE WORK WEEK.
THE TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RETROGRESS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PR/USVI WILL LIE BETWEEN THE TUTTS...HOWEVER THE IMPACT OF THESE
TUTTS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TUTT OVER THE BAHAMAS
THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER HISPANOLA...MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LOW/TUTT HAVE PUSHED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER PR AND USVI...MAINTAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY SLOT ADVECTING
OVER USVI/PR EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR LATER TODAY...A DENSE LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER LAND. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS OVER
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR...WHILE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 08/17Z. DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA AROUND JMZ/JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 12-18 KT AND
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 10 10 10
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9.5N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
7N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE WEEK. A CUT OFF LOW 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AGUADILLA WILL JOIN ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEXT MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WILL JOIN A HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE WEEK. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTHWEST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE PASSING MORE THAN 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
AROUND 12:45 PM AST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND REACHING THE MONA CHANNEL
WATERS BEFORE 3 PM. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPED
IN CAROLINA TO PASS OVER OLD SAN JUAN. STREAMERS OFF OF SAINT
CROIX AND VIEQUES LEFT MINOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS OF 3 PM AST.

AN AREA OF DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE 8 AM AST. LITTLE ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO WHEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ERUPTS. THIS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON
THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL THEN.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS MOST PROBABLE TRAJECTORY WILL PLACE IT
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT THE SHOWER PATTERN TO
FAVOR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ONLY PERIPHERAL TENUOUS
RAIN BANDS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. SOME SAHARAN
DUST WILL WORK AROUND THE SYSTEM AND MAY WEAKEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE. THE DUST IN THE AIR TODAY WILL FADE TOMORROW BUT WILL RETURN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ AND SHRA FOR TJSJ TIL
08/22Z. THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TIST...TISX...TNCM AND
TKPK. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS AT THE LOWER 15 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FEET EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST
WATERS WHERE SEAS UP TO 5 FEET MAY BE ENCOUNTERED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 20 30 20 30
STT 78 89 78 90 / 30 30 30 30