ATL: EDOUARD - Models

[Yellow Evan]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912014 09/07/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 52 64 74 84 88 92 93 96
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 52 64 74 84 88 92 93 96
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 38 44 50 56 64 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 14 10 4 2 8 9 6 6 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 7 8 11 15 5 0 -1 -2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 74 69 64 56 45 78 214 163 178 238 287 295 287
SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 132 132 128 128 118 114 113 116 123 131
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 133 133 129 128 115 110 108 112 119 128
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 73 74 77 76 76 71 66 61 58 55 50 47 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 17 17 18 23 26 29 32 33 35 34 35
850 MB ENV VOR 129 145 142 154 145 114 84 83 94 117 103 105 110
200 MB DIV 50 54 93 106 77 86 83 51 53 14 -10 1 22
700-850 TADV 6 1 -2 -5 -5 0 2 3 2 2 5 7 9
LAND (KM) 105 168 239 241 310 524 795 1107 1428 1747 2076 2138 1903
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.7 11.3 13.0 14.8 16.5 17.9 19.0 19.8 20.3 20.3
LONG(DEG W) 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.5 22.0 24.9 27.7 30.5 33.6 36.9 40.6 44.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 14 15 17 15 16 16 17 18 19
HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 4 7 11

Post away.

[Hammy]

As expected the Euro slowly dissipates THIS system now, and is focusing on the one behind it, delaying development (for what, the tenth consecutive run now?) to beyond 120 hours. Sounds familiar...

[gatorcane]

The GFS has shifted west overnight and is not quite as intense with this invest. It is now close to the ECMWF on track. I expected that to happen for the reasons I gave yesterday evening. But even in the latest GFS run it still magically collapses the ridge to the north of this system as soon as it switches to low resolution after 192 hours. Something to watch as we look at future model runs.

06Z 168 hour image with system heading west with ridge to the NW:


For comparison, here is the 00Z ECMWF 168 position with the system heading WNW:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running and much weaker so far than the 06Z out through 72 hours that the run has gone out to so far.

Tropical storm by day 4 the run is out to so far.

[Alyono]

surprise surprise

the -removed- model in chief, the GFS, is substantially weaker

Louis Ucelleni, FIX YOUR MODEL!

[jlauderdal]

surprise surprise

the -removed- model in chief, the GFS, is substantially weaker

Louis Ucelleni, FIX YOUR MODEL!

its incredible how poorly that model performs considering the time and money spent

[blp]

Yes much more realistic on 12z so far out 144hrs shows a Tropical Storm versus a Hurricane.

[LarryWx]

As long as that El Ninoish E CONUS upper level long wave trough for mid Sept. persists on the models and when considering its modeled latitude isn't that low once nearing the longitude of the Lesser Antilles, I don't see how 91-L can realistically even get all that close to the CONUS. Other opinions?

[SFLcane]

GFS trending weaker but is this really a surprise? Giving the hostile conditions across the basin of late a decent TS is hard to come by. As 57 mentioned early " its always the next one with the models " yea right. Would not be surprised if this ends up not developing. Not sure i by any of those intensity models.

Edit..with all these trofs across the southeast I find it highly unlikely 91L even remotely comes close to being a threat. we shall see

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N. Even a little WSW movement at 192 hours before the model resolution switches to lower resolution

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N out to 240 hours.

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

It is recurving well east of the CONUS like on prior runs.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

No way...at that latitude recurve is all but a done deal. No threat

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N out to 240 hours.

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

It is recurving well east of the CONUS like on prior runs.

Yes but it keeps delaying the recurve after when the model resolution switches to lower resolution. Each run has been showing more of a bend west and for longer if you look at the trend from the past past several runs.

[gatorcane]

Also I noticed the GFS NCEP site is messed up. The 12Z run is really showing the 12Z from yesterday....use this tropical tidbits link below instead. There is a much more pronounced W or even WSW bend...before the model switches to low resolution where it finally recurves it.

EDIT: The GFS NCEP site is now working properly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... d_atl.html

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N out to 240 hours.

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

It is recurving well east of the CONUS like on prior runs.

Yes but it keeps delaying the recurve after when the model resolution switches to lower resolution. Each run has been showing more of a bend west and for longer if you look at the trend from the past past several runs.

Yes, I see that the recurve is the furthest west (63 degrees) of the last four runs fwiw (well after truncation) with this weakest run of at least the last four (probably not a coincidence). Last four GFS runs' furthest west longitude for 91-L (in degrees): 50, 60, 57, 63. So, there has been a bit of a westward trend overall. Still, even a 63W recurve is not all that close to the CONUS, especially when considering what 91-L would have to do to get past the persistent modeled western Atlantic/E CONUS El Ninoish long wave trough. Oncoming El Niño climo says the odds are quite low since this would be an MDR system at not such a low latitude once making it to 60W. I would imagine the main danger would be if this were to end up even weaker than what the 12Z GFS has and it moves at a good bit lower latitude into the Caribbean.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

No way...at that latitude recurve is all but a done deal. No threat

You mean recurvature at that latitude is extremely likely. It's never a done deal--Sandy showed us that.

[YoshiMike]

well that thing makes it look itll slam the north east, thats no good! My family lives in CT.

[WPBWeather]

Yes but it keeps delaying the recurve after when the model resolution switches to lower resolution. Each run has been showing more of a bend west and for longer if you look at the trend from the past past several runs.[/quote]

Yes, I see that the recurve is the furthest west (63 degrees) of the last four runs fwiw (well after truncation) with this weakest run of at least the last four (probably not a coincidence). Last four GFS runs' furthest west longitude for 91-L (in degrees): 50, 60, 57, 63. So, there has been a bit of a westward trend overall. Still, even a 63W recurve is not all that close to the CONUS, especially when considering what 91-L would have to do to get past the persistent modeled western Atlantic/E CONUS El Ninoish long wave trough. Oncoming El Niño climo says the odds are quite low since this would be an MDR system at not such a low latitude once making it to 60W. I would imagine the main danger would be if this were to end up even weaker than what the 12Z GFS has and it moves at a good bit lower latitude into the Caribbean.[/quote][/quote]

I like the "El Ninoish" phrase! I guess some sort of nino something may come--although the nino tanking of the last six months (from Super to whatever) has been amazing to watch. Just shows how much we do NOT KNOW.

[blp]

You guys saying recurve are looking at the GFS which has been worthless and it is past 10 days. Until the Euro starts showing a recurve on several runs I won't buy in. Not saying won't happen but I am waiting on the Euro.

Also, those that think the higher latitiude is an automatic recurve need only look at the IKE track. It can happen.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS has a hurricane that has turned west just north of 20N

As usual the ECMWF sniffed it out first...

No way...at that latitude recurve is all but a done deal. No threat

You mean recurvature at that latitude is extremely likely. It's never a done deal--Sandy showed us that.

ok...sandy and ike which ever those tracks are ''extremely rare''. This is 2014 completely different steering pattern. Lets try to get a decent storm 1st. Only way this can be a threat is if it stays weak which is probably likely at this point.