ATL: EDOUARD - Models

[gatorcane]

GEM refuses to develop it but develops something behind it. 120 hour graphic below:

[SFLcane]

not a good sign when " constantly making cyclones" isn't going gang busters with it. yea the next one at this rate capeverde season will be over.

[Alyono]

notice a trend in the models... they keep developing the NEXT wave

This means very little, if any, chance of development. I am surprised NHC bit on the models this time, while they are ignoring the models showing something plausible in the BOC

[SFLcane]

notice a trend in the models... they keep developing the NEXT wave

This means very little, if any, chance of development. I am surprised NHC bit on the models this time, while they are ignoring the models showing something plausible in the BOC

please no more BOC.. its new MDR I guess

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z GFS run ends at 384 hours with the system not recurving and heading NW even at a high latitude. Note this is super-long range:

[ninel conde]

not surprised. i think the models are just showing climatology and something SHOULD be out there. dry air will kill off everything. 91L will dry right up.

[Riptide]

The wave looks beautiful on the satellite. The best one of the year by far. I hope you like surprises.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[blp]

not surprised. i think the models are just showing climatology and something SHOULD be out there. dry air will kill off everything. 91L will dry right up.

Your post makes no sense. The models don't just go off climatology.

There is a reason the models try to develop waves off the cape verde and then poof when they go west. We have a very vigourous wave train this year but the environment is brutal past 30W that has been well documented. As a pro met mentioned yesterday if they don't develop before 30W then they are either toast or have to wait until past 60W.

[Hammy]

Euro is the model everyone puts their weight behind, as far as being the one that if it shows activity that something will form, where do we go when the Euro is playing the GFS game of delay delay delay, and the develop-all-the-waves CMC is showing nothing, meanwhile the often right UKMET is showing development but the GFS is back to delays as well (now nothing until Sep 12)

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has what looks like a tropical storm by 72 hours. It moves WNW then turns it west around 20N between 144-168 hours through 216 hours where it weakens it some then moves it WNW and starts intensifying it and here is how the run ends at 240 hours in the long-range:

[Alyono]

EC basically shows no development now until day 10

I'd give this no more than a 10% chance of development through 7 days

[blp]

12z Euro looks further west. No recurve on that run.

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF has what looks like a tropical storm by 72 hours. It moves WNW then turns it west around 20N between 144-168 hours through 216 hours where it weakens it some then moves it WNW and starts intensifying it and here is how the run ends at 240 hours in the long-range:

Of course, we're only talking about a 10 day map of 91L on an operational run as you mentioned (though the Euro is the best model overall fwiw). Be that as it may, IF this map were to come close to verifying, I'd be 95%+ confident that 91L would subsequently recurve well east of the SE US due to persistent significant E US/far W ATL troughing. It is already turning NW based on the six hour maps. There'd be no high pressure to the north of it to bring it back westward.

Edit: For those who may be confused, that other system off of the Carolinas is not 91-L. That is homegrown fwiw and is moving NE away from the SE coast. That would likely also insure that 91-L wouldn't hit the SE US.

[blp]

The 500mb chart on the Euro is not clear cut recurve IMO.

10 days out and will change though.

[Alyono]

the EC is moving NW at the end. That is a recurve run. It recurves because another system develops east of Florida and moves NE. That erodes the ridge

[blp]

GFS not my favorite model right now but FWIW the ensembles are further west.

[Alyono]

and it looks like only 7 tracks. That means the GFS is saying a 35% chance of development

I do not understand the NHC 60%

[Alyono]

18Z GFS intensifies this in the middle of where the SAL outbreak will be spreading...

[Alyono]

doesnt even make 55W in this run of Model Ucceleni

Of course, it insists it will be a mega hurricane...

[LarryWx]

doesnt even make 55W in this run of Model Ucceleni

Of course, it insists it will be a mega hurricane...

So, last five GFS runs' furthest west longitude for 91-L (in degrees): 55, 63, 57, 60, 50. This is not the least bit threatening to the SE US.

Chance of 91-L hitting the U.S. based on numerous model runs/pattern of E US trough: 5% at best imo. I'd say that its only chance of a threat is if it stays at a good bit further south latitude than has been modeled, goes through the Caribbean, and then comes up north. Otherwise, the E CONUS/far W ATL trough will almost definitely capture it and keep it safely E of the SE US. N NE might have a slightly better chance but even that would be a remote chance imo.

Keep in mind that, overall, something forming well east out in the MDR in Sep. only has ~20% chance of hitting the CONUS. The current chance is a good bit lower than the already rather low climo of 20%.