WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140908 0000 5.1N 158.0E WPAC 15 1010

South of Pohnpei...

[euro6208]

Weak system that never strengthens much until dissipation east of Taiwan...

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140908 0600 6.1N 164.0E WPAC 15 1010

not much change...

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM...

THE GFS40 INDICATES THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED
WEST OF POHNPEI WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE MODEL INDICATES MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A POSSIBILITY IF THIS CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION APPROACHES A BIT CLOSER TO GUAM. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 94W IS BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
AND ANOTHER SMALLER DISTURBANCE IS NEAR MAJURO. A MONSOON-TYPE
TROUGH CONNECTS THE TWO DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE WINDS ARE WESTERLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 7N-8N. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EDGE TOWARD
THE WEST...BUT THE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. BOTTOM LINE...THE WINDS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHANGEABLE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE TWO DISTURBANCES.

THE GFS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS BY
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AND DEVELOPS IN THE COMING DAYS.

[euro6208]

00Z showing a weak tropical storm landfall for luzon in September?

Now that's something...

[euro6208]

Big change ...

06Z even stronger...

Typhoon Kalmaegi...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it is forecast to hit Central Luzon, it might hit the Visayas. It is over low latitudes, and have a Haiyan-like track.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 140909 1200 5.7N 152.9E WPAC 15 1010



strongest vorticity is well to the north and northwest of center...



Marginal environment...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For the past several GFS runs, it has been consistently developing a strong typhoon making landfall over the Philippines, or Luzon, but the region of landfall is still uncertain. Despite that, we are overdue for a big ACE accumulator from this, and the CPC marked a high chance of development within the Philippine Sea.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

94W is currently consolidating in a fairly rapid manner, although some shear may hinder it. If it goes NW or NNW, then this would be stronger as the conditions have become increasingly favorable for development. Not surprised to see a typhoon later this week.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
144.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 101124Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND THE CENTER AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP ALSO SHOW A 2 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE TIME FRAME OF DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE SLIGHT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 142.7E TO 12.6N 134.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 142.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 9.0N
144.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF
YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 101210Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING SOME CONSOLIDATION COMPARED TO 12
HOURS AGO. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE A DROP IN PRESSURE
OF 02 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VARYING LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KTS) IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 101516

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 9.9N

D. 141.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6HRS.
INITIAL CLASSIFICATION MUST NOT EXCEED 1.5, SO DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z GFS has a 975 mb typhoon landfall for Luzon and 964 mb typhoon into Hainan Island!

[AFWeather]

100 KT is what I was anticipating. Seems to be north of the GFS track.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FINALLY!! This should rack up the ACE as it cranks up. Looks good and well-organized on satellite.

[phwxenthusiast]

the llcc is still exposed. this will continue to battle wind shear for another day or so. i'm not expecting any substantial development until maybe Friday or Saturday. after that, shear is forecast to weaken slightly and it's off to the races from there. 100kt isn't that far-fetched i think

[euro6208]

Latest Prognostic Reasoning...

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY LESS CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAN
6 HOURS AGO, WITH BROAD CONVECTION VISIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 102111Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MAIN
AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE APPARENT
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TD 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF TD 15W THROUGH TAU 48. WHILE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE STR BREAKS DOWN, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DEGREE OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NAVGEM
DEPICTS THE STR BREAKING DOWN FASTER AND THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTH INTO A SMALL BREAK IN THE RIDGE BEYOND TAU 48 AND THEN
CONTINUING TO THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TD 15W
SLOWING SLIGHTLY BY TAU 48 AND 72 DUE TO THE SMALL BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AND THE WEAKENING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BEFORE CONTINUING
WESTWARD UNDER THE RE-BUILDING STR. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT A STEADY RATE THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT, DUE TO HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE, WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS TAKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LUZON AND
THE NAVGEM MODEL FAVORING A TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN. AS SUCH,
THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, TRACKING INTO NORTHERN LUZON AFTER BY
TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL IMPEDE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FORECASTED GOOD EQUATOR OUTFLOW AND AVERAGE
VWS. THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK IS LOW DUE TO DISPARITIES
DEPICTED IN THE DIFFERENT MODELS’ STEERING ENVIRONMENTS AFTER TAU
48.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 110108
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1108 AM CHST THU SEP 11 2014

PMZ161-171-120100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1108 AM CHST THU SEP 11 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W PASSING BY YAP ISLAND TO THE NORTH...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST
OF YAP ISLAND NEAR 11N140E AND MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 17 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES ON KOROR.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS WILL CAUSE ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 110300
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152014
200 PM CHST THU SEP 11 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W PASSING BY YAP ISLAND TO THE NORTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.7N 138.7E

ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 140 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS AND
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 138.7 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH.
TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
AWAY FROM YAP ISLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON