Global model runs discussion

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you Hammy. The GFS has just been wrong too may times this season with showing intensifying tropical cyclones out in the MDR. Conditions have been hostile all season out there, so I wouldn't buy too much into these long range runs.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: I agree with you Hammy. The GFS has just been wrong too may times this season with showing intensifying tropical cyclones out in the MDR. Conditions have been hostile all season out there, so I wouldn't buy too much into these long range runs.

good idea to stay off the gfs until it gets euro support...gfs is lousy with development and track outside 72 hours

[Ntxw]

I'm personally not buying these long-range runs. The GFS has already forecast a few strong storms this year that never materialized, and neither the Euro or even the develop-every-low-you-see Canadian model show anything more than weak storms at best. More than likely the GFS is back to playing in the Fantasy Hurricane League

It's been very bad. Especially in the open Atlantic. I looked back at some long range forecast in this thread from it for this period (past 2 weeks), if it was correct we should've had at least 2 hurricanes by now since last week, and several tropical storms with a few more in the coming days. We have had none and not expecting any within the next few days.

Euro has done better, whether it be luck or the overall lull and not the actual model, but it's shown some good waves exiting Africa then weakening not really developing much. Which is what we've seen, good example 90L.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has a couple of Cape Verde systems traversing west across the MDR over the next 10 days with a ridge sitting right over the North Central Atlantic:

[Hammy]

Has the Euro undergone any software "upgrades" recently by chance? It seems to keep showing development always staying beyond 120 hours.

[tolakram]

The wave further east, still over Africa, has its own thread now: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116707&hilit=&view=unread#unread

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows something that recurves just off the coast of Florida. I don't see any other models showing this though, 144 hours below:

[pgoss11]

12Z ECMWF shows something that recurves just off the coast of Florida. I don't see any other models showing this though, 144 hours below:

Could that be home brew activity?

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF shows something that recurves just off the coast of Florida. I don't see any other models showing this though, 144 hours below:

Could that be home brew activity?

It is definitely a home brew formation. Actually, if anything, it would help to recurve 91-L as modeled as it moves NE.

I'm thinking that home brews, W. Caribbean formations, and perhaps a Caribbean Cruiser will be a good bit higher threat to the CONUS than the rather low threat (imo) from formations well east from this point forward being that it is starting to get late and I think we have El Nino on the way.

[gatorcane]

Glad to see the GEM is back to it's old tricks it shows the Atlantic lighting up by day 10! Has a 995MB cane NE of the Leewards which has turned to the WNW at the end too...I give that about a 0.001% chance of happening

[ronjon]

Here's the 12z CMC animated version for fun! Wave train of hurricanes, lol.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090812/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

[Hammy]

Here's the 12z CMC animated version for fun! Wave train of hurricanes, lol.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090812/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

It would certainly be nice to see this play out as unlikely as it is.

[ronjon]

12z GFS - trying its best to imitate the Canadian, lol.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014090912/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[Bizzles]

Glad to see the GEM is back to it's old tricks it shows the Atlantic lighting up by day 10! Has a 995MB cane NE of the Leewards which has turned to the WNW at the end too...I give that about a 0.001% chance of happening

*Raises eyebrow* "So you saying there's a chance..."

/Jim Carey jokes

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS for the last several run have had a low forming in the NW Caribbean and heading for the Gulf coast, while I'm very skeptical of it happening there is predicted to be a CCKW in that area around then and now the GFS starts developing it around 174hrs rather than beyond truncation so maybe this might happen, we will know by ther weekend or early next week if that area needs to be watched

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The GFS for the last several run have had a low forming in the NW Caribbean and heading for the Gulf coast, while I'm very skeptical of it happening there is predicted to be a CCKW in that area around then and now the GFS starts developing it around 174hrs rather than beyond truncation so maybe this might happen, we will know by ther weekend or early next week if that area needs to be watched

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yep two runs in a row with the same solution. 1000MB low heading NE into Florida then a system heading WNW towards Florida but recurves east of the Bahamas on this run. The 06Z run was barely east of Florida. Thankfully all of this is in the long-range!

[gatorcane]

The GFS still has the Gulf system late next week...I think that is 3 runs in a row. The Atlantic system get sucked into 91l so doesn't make the journey west.

[wyq614]

Is the Gulf system actually 92L?

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Is the Gulf system actually 92L?

nope, its a new system that forms near Belieze

[Big O]

In super long-range, 6z GFS is once-again suggesting action in the western GOM (take it with a heap of salt).