Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[Nimbus]

That upper level low just north of Cuba is starting to look less cold core.
Specifically the convection has been creeping in toward the center this evening and there is some anticyclonic shear in the upper levels.

[tropicwatch]

Nope its still there and maybe tightening.

[floridasun78]

Nope its still there and maybe tightening.

what tightening??? explain

[tropicwatch]

The upper level low.

[floridasun78]

so chance any thing tropical form so topic close

[tailgater]

Looks to me like the transformation is slowly taking shape, T-storms firing near the cold core will start to warm the upper level and Cimss is showing a slight increase in the 850 vorticity. Something to check back on in the next few days

[NDG]

You guys are looking the ULL north of Cuba too much, the area to watch is just east of the ULL, north of Hispaniola where the H85 & H70 vorticity are, it is going to rotate around to the north of the ULL as the ULL shifts a little southward as it possible weakens and eventually repositions itself back further east with yet another ULL coming from the Atlantic, as this happens the H85 vorticity that has formed thanks to UL divergence might develop a surface reflection in a few days near the northern Bahamas.

[NDG]

0z GFS shows a weak low developing near the northern Bahamas then track westward towards southern FL and into the eastern GOM but opening back up as it does so.

[MGC]

Can't remember the last time a cold core bore itself to the surface and became a TC. Its a fairly rare occurance, so I'd go with the surface reflection senario as a possiblity. We just need to sit back and see what happens.....MGC

[ronjon]

00z Euro shows fairly strong 850 mb vorticity moving from the Bahamas into Vero Beach and across south-central FL into the GOM in the 72-96 hour period.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[ronjon]

NWS Miami AFD this morning:

MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.

[ronjon]

ULL sinking south into Cuba this am. Look for the low pressure center to develop north of the Turks and Caicos where convection is firing now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[northjaxpro]

You beat me to this ronjon. I also noticed the ULL drifting to the south as well. EURO showing Low Pressure to develop and drift across South Central Florida by late this week.


Looking at satellite imagery early this morning, the mid level vorticity approaching the SE Bahamas looks fairly impressive. This feature is looking better with time. I would be inclined to think we may have our next invest area real soon if the current trends continue with this feature.

[Nimbus]

If the remnants of the ULL dive south that would tend to kick the surface feature west.
Look at the first few visible frames the high cirrus clouds should be displaying an anticyclonic motion.
If that is occurring over the ULL then it is likely filling in.

Timing will be critical with Florida there but climo tells us these core conversions are usualy slow can take days.
NHC must be watching lets see what they say.

[NDG]

Lets see if the NHC mentions this feature this morning.

RAMMB has a floater over it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[TheStormExpert]

If they can mention pathetic little 91L not expected to threaten land, then I don't see why they can't give this a mention even if it only receives 0-10% development chances.

[NDG]

06z GFS has a weak low pressure developing by late tonight into tomorrow morning, has it then moving slowly westward towards S FL during late week into the eastern GOM by the weekend. The reason I see that it does not develops much is because of strong northerly UL shear from southern UL US ridge.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS has a weak low pressure developing by late tonight into tomorrow morning, has it then moving slowly westward towards S FL during late week into the eastern GOM by the weekend. The reason I see that it does not develops much is because of strong northerly UL shear from southern UL US ridge.

bastardi kind of likes it, lets see what happens..been dry on the east coast after a very wet july


BigJoeBastardi
Been tracking this for clients.. Bahamas/FLA this system coming through the Bahamas could be problem http://t.co/hEnoUKlxbI

[caneman]

Can anyone tell how strong the Euro has it before crossing the State?

[NDG]

Can anyone tell how strong the Euro has it before crossing the State?

Very weak like the GFS shows, maybe the h85 vorticity a tad stronger than the GFS.