2014 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Likely explains the more aggressive models.

I was going through some equatorial Pacific wind profiles for ENSO and noticed some raw westerlies showing up and looks to remain near the dateline. I wonder if this could surprise the CPAC with enhancement for development there. Could something sneak through this area with CCKW passing by?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Likely explains the more aggressive models.

I was going through some equatorial Pacific wind profiles for ENSO and noticed some raw westerlies showing up and looks to remain near the dateline. I wonder if this could surprise the CPAC with enhancement for development there. Could something sneak through this area with CCKW passing by?

GFS has been spinnig stuff near the dateline, yes.

[supercane4867]

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
for gradual development of this system during the next several
days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norbert, located offshore of the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
for gradual development of this system during the next several
days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about
1100 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur during the next several days while it remains nearly
stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ntxw]

So earlier today I posted 200hpa velocity from the GFS. Dr Ventrice posted one public on his twitter for the ECMWF which extends out a little further. It agrees a substantial CCKW will come mid Sept not unlike the one that helped Marie. I don't know if we will see another sprawling cat 5 like that from it, but I'd definitely watch modeling this week to see something big try to pop up on the models. it's prime time for Mexican west coast so hope they are ready.

[Yellow Evan]

So earlier today I posted 200hpa velocity from the GFS. Dr Ventrice posted one public on his twitter for the ECMWF which extends out a little further. It agrees a substantial CCKW will come mid Sept not unlike the one that helped Marie. I don't know if we will see another sprawling cat 5 like that from it, but I'd definitely watch modeling this week to see something big try to pop up on the models. it's prime time for Mexican west coast so hope they are ready.

GFS for a while has been showing a huge trough off the Western US.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS develops this faster and closer to MX. Shear may be low and with a CCKW coming, I think we could easily see a major out of this.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072329
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norbert, located offshore of the west-central coast of the
Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several
days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Ntxw]

GFS for a while has been showing a huge trough off the Western US.

Yep, even if we don't get west coast troughing, there is a deep trof in the central conus. Any storm that gets intense enough, and close enough to the coast will get drawn into it regardless of ridging up north.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS for a while has been showing a huge trough off the Western US.

Yep, even if we don't get west coast troughing, there is a deep trof in the central conus. Any storm that gets intense enough, and close enough to the coast will get drawn into it regardless of ridging up north.

And we have the highest SST's off the W coast of MX since 1959, when a Cat 5 hit MX. Could the same happen this year? Let's hope not.

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap.



CCKW to help the CPAC it seems.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows two systems including the one the NHC took down



Brings the 20/60 to a powerful hurricane near MX but a ridge over the S US allows for it to not make landfall. One of those near-misses.



And still shows a CPAC hurricane.



UKMET



FIM keeps it closer to the coast, but seems to have a right bias.

[euro6208]

Unlike previous years, it seems like all the beauties this year from the WPAC is stripped off because of nino (only three this year, 3 cat 4, 1 cat 5) instead they are appearing in the EPAC where it is active only because of nino...I see a mighty return of them during the last half of year...

[Yellow Evan]

1. A surface trough about 500 miles south of Hilo Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the next couple of days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A surface trough about 600 miles south of Honolulu Hawaii produced pulsing showers and thunderstorms. As this disturbance moves toward the west at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to support gradual development. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Wednesday night.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST TUE SEP 9 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A surface trough about 650 miles south of Honolulu Hawaii produced pulsing showers and thunderstorms. As this disturbance moves toward the west at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to support gradual development. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has also been trying to show another system developing in around six days.

[Ntxw]

And here comes the CCKW, looks similar in strength to the CCKW that crossed when Marie, Lowell, and Karina were born. 94E and 95E are good candidates.

[Yellow Evan]

Chances look good for more