2014 EPAC Season

hurricanes1234 · #1081 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:12 am

Agreed. When pertaining to this season, we might have to take forecasts of inactivity or decreased activity with a pinch of salt! :lol:

#1082 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:43 am

Add 96E to the list, Triplets! Can we knock out 3 names all at the same time? Odile, Polo, and Rachel. It's real life model fantasy on a map :lol:

#1083 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:55 am

Ntxw wrote:Add 96E to the list, Triplets! Can we knock out 3 names all at the same time? Odile, Polo, and Rachel. It's real life model fantasy on a map

http://i62.tinypic.com/wc0egp.jpg

If we do, it's a big win for guess what model? The CMC, since it predicts situations like this on a regular basis.

#1084 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:56 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST WED SEP 10 2014

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A surface trough about 550 miles south-southeast of Honolulu Hawaii produced pulsing showers and thunderstorms. As this disturbance moves toward the west at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to support gradual development. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Thursday night.

#1085 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:59 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Add 96E to the list, Triplets! Can we knock out 3 names all at the same time? Odile, Polo, and Rachel. It's real life model fantasy on a map

http://i62.tinypic.com/wc0egp.jpg

If we do, it's a big win for guess what model? The CMC, since it predicts situations like this on a regular basis.

Priceless

. 2014 EPAC go with the most aggressive model, even if it's unrealistic. It may just happen.

#1086 Postby **terstorm1012** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:01 am

EPAC season has been so amazing this year.

supercane4867 · #1087 Postby **supercane4867** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:19 pm

18z GFS
Hurricane Odile and TS polo with Hurricane Rachel in behind

#1088 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:26 pm

supercane4867 · #1089 Postby **supercane4867** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:39 pm

957mb Major Hurricane Rachel on this run

#1090 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:46 pm

Idk why they did not add that to the 5 day TWO.

#1091 Postby **Extratropical94** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:53 am

Next one:

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by late in the weekend. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

hurricanes1234 · #1092 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 4:50 am

ANOTHER ONE! REALLY AND TRULY SHOCKING!

#1093 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:53 am

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by late in the weekend. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

#1094 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:43 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by late in the weekend. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

#1095 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:40 am

GFS shows a bunch of systems (mainly weak) following Odile for the last few runs.

hurricanes1234 · #1096 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:19 pm

Wow!

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of
southeastern Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system after that time
while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

#1097 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:32 pm

Haven't looked at 0z GFS, but 18z keeps this too close to do with it much.

#1098 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:56 pm

An area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it drifts toward the northwest toward the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

#1099 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:29 pm

The EPAC has just gone mad this year! I honestly think this is the year we go Greek.

galaxy401 · #1100 Postby **galaxy401** » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The EPAC has just gone mad this year! I honestly think this is the year we go Greek.

That will be tough. The EPAC naming list has three more letters in the list than the Atlantic. It will be close.

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