Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[gatorcane]

I think the MDR is pretty much DOA this year, whatever forms, even in the off chance we end up above the predictions for the season, will be north of 20 at this point.

Last few the runs of the GFS show some gradual development of a system that heads west in the MDR at a lower latitude than 91l. The GEM has jumped on board too as of the 12Z with a similar track but faster. That's a good sign if the GEM jumps on board. The ECMWF has not but it is not good at predicting genesis in the MDR region. Just maybe the GFS will finally get one right though we know the drill with it

[ConvergenceZone]

This is turning out to be the most boring season to track that I can remember...At least I can look forward to getting slammed with Strong Winter Storms this year here in California........ Go away 2014 Tropical Season........

Never knew three hurricanes was considered more boring than two.

instability graph

I think the MDR is pretty much DOA this year, whatever forms, even in the off chance we end up above the predictions for the season, will be north of 20 at this point.

from a tracking perspective, they were very boring hurricanes to track.... and none of them ever reached the potential of a classic buzzsaw hurricane spinning in the mid-Atlantic........ so yes, boring.........

[Hammy]

This is turning out to be the most boring season to track that I can remember...At least I can look forward to getting slammed with Strong Winter Storms this year here in California........ Go away 2014 Tropical Season........

Never knew three hurricanes was considered more boring than two.

instability graph

I think the MDR is pretty much DOA this year, whatever forms, even in the off chance we end up above the predictions for the season, will be north of 20 at this point.

from a tracking perspective, they were very boring hurricanes to track.... and none of them ever reached the potential of a classic buzzsaw hurricane spinning in the mid-Atlantic........ so yes, boring.........

I fail to see how that is less boring than last year, which was just nothing but masses of shear.

[Ntxw]

We have exactly 1 week to add 3 ACE points. 2013 will catch up with 2014 in the next several days if we don't see systems adding points. The difference is 2013 was spread out over a bunch of weak systems, 2014 is bunched up in the 3 hurricanes.

Monday, Sept 16, 2013

Updated numbers from Dr. Ryan Maue's site for this week as of 9/16, Humberto and Ingrid brought the Atlantic up from the depths however the basin still remains the least active relative to normal compared to the others.
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N. Hemisphere: 144.3625 [Normal: 335 - 43% of normal]

Western Pacific: 64.395 [Normal: 165 - 39% of normal]

North Atlantic: 23.2675 [Normal: 62 - 37% of normal]

Eastern Pacific: 51.3225 [Normal: 99 - 51% of normal]

North Indian: 5.3775 [Normal: 7]

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http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[WeatherGuesser]

Not really sure why people seem to be wishing for a hard winter on this thread.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not really sure why people seem to be wishing for a hard winter on this thread.

OFF TOPIC: Maybe not back east, but if California doesn't have a hard winter, say hello to economic depression. California is in a horrific drought state of emergency....It's absolutely HORRIBLE here... Everything is dead, dried, absolutely disgusting, which is why when I hear someone in California say that they hate the rain, it makes me absolutely sick.......They should have their water turned off..I know that sounds brutal, but that's how I feel..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Same reason lots of people wish for busy hurricane and severe weather seasons


Add Texas to that as well. Saw something the other day showing much of the state is still In a pretty bad drought.

[NDG]

Happy peak of the season day, yet another year in which all we have to watch is just a couple thunderstorm clouds, one near the Bahamas and the other one in the eastern Atlantic, both with just a weak vorticity, lol. I think wxman57 is right about next year in the beginning of the hurricane season we will be saying "10 years since the last Cat 3 hurricane made landfall in the US", no doubt about it.
Shear in the Caribbean had come down to near average for a weak or two last month but now is back to above average and looks to stay that way while the Atlantic MDR looks like it will stay like a dessert so most likely the Cape Verde season will never happen.

[Ntxw]

There will likely be something to track next week, most likely somewhere off the SE US coast/Bahamas. Perhaps something baroclinically enhanced from exiting fronts off the E/US. Don't think it's anything that currently exists now or maybe distant rebirth of 91L. Reason for is spilling over of convectively-coupled Kelvin wave from the EPAC. Maybe a Cristobal like redo. Set up is quite similar.

[CFLHurricane]

while the Atlantic MDR looks like it will stay like a dessert so most likely the Cape Verde season will never happen.

Mmm....dessert....

Also I agree Cape Verde season will be shutting down shortly.

Happy Peak Day to you all!
-CFLHurricane

[Ntxw]

Another amazing feat that continues is Florida. Prime zone this year has been the Bermuda Triangle very close to the state, but Florida (thus far) has escaped a hurricane landfall to extend (as of today) it's streak of no hurricanes to 3,243 days. The last being October 24, 2005 (Wilma). You'd be called a crazy nutjob if you predicted something like that back in 2005. Of course this is a record I think Floridians are happy about.

[NDG]

while the Atlantic MDR looks like it will stay like a dessert so most likely the Cape Verde season will never happen.

Mmm....dessert....

Also I agree Cape Verde season will be shutting down shortly.

Happy Peak Day to you all!
-CFLHurricane

Overbaked cake dessert that is, very dry, lol, is my Culinary part of me

[ConvergenceZone]

Remember the years when we use to really look forward to the upcoming tropical season?? Man, how times have changed....... Now instead, it's the Winter Months that are more exciting hoping for an end to all the drought stricken areas.........

[psyclone]

there's historically been an active named storm about 90% of the time somewhere in the Atlantic at peak season (Sept 10). This year could put us in the lowest decile of lameness. I think we had an active storm on 9-10 even last year so unless something pops before 9-10 that is really saying something.

And we've done it gang!

[blp]

I still don't think we have left the active era. 2010, 2011 & 2012 were still very active. The problem (or blessing depending on your point of view) has been the pattern of troughiness that has been persistent since 2009 and moved the bulk of activity during those three years out of the main regions of development. If we had the same pattern as during mid 2000's of bringing storms through the Carribean and into the Gulf then people would have a different impression. We tend to forget the storms that go OTS. 2013 & this year are obviously on a different level and it is still to early to tell if this is the new normal or a shift in the Multidecadal signal.

[Hurricaneman]

This year is reminding me of some of the early 91-94 years where there really wasn't much activity due to the -AMO whether temporary or its a new period is yet to be seen and also if you look a -PDO also tends to lower landfall numbers as it causes the east coast trough most of the time but it does seem as though the PDO is headind for a + period so while an El Nino or El Nino like conditions{Shear in the Caribbean, drier than normal MDR and better development in the Subtropics} its still prudent to keep an eye in the gulf or off the east coast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

I still don't think we have left the active era. 2010, 2011 & 2012 were still very active. The problem (or blessing depending on your point of view) has been the pattern of troughiness that has been persistent since 2009 and moved the bulk of activity during those three years out of the main regions of development. If we had the same pattern as during mid 2000's of bringing storms through the Carribean and into the Gulf then people would have a different impression. We tend to forget the storms that go OTS. 2013 & this year are obviously on a different level and it is still to early to tell if this is the new normal or a shift in the Multidecadal signal.

a -PDO regime tend to lead to such a trough but the PDO as of this year seems to be heading towards a more + regime

[Hurricaneman]

I still don't think we have left the active era. 2010, 2011 & 2012 were still very active. The problem (or blessing depending on your point of view) has been the pattern of troughiness that has been persistent since 2009 and moved the bulk of activity during those three years out of the main regions of development. If we had the same pattern as during mid 2000's of bringing storms through the Carribean and into the Gulf then people would have a different impression. We tend to forget the storms that go OTS. 2013 & this year are obviously on a different level and it is still to early to tell if this is the new normal or a shift in the Multidecadal signal.

a -PDO regime tend to lead to such a trough but the PDO as of this year seems to be heading towards a more + regime which as we've seen in 2004, 2005, and 2008 can lead to more landfalls but thats the tendncy of how the PDO works as a - PDO has a trough over the west coast, ridge over the Midwest and trough on the east coast while its the complete opposite with a +PDO and plus with this years hurricane season it will probably take until next year to get the pattern of a +PDO due to the lag effect

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SeGaBob]

I think there's a lot of negativity that'll continue for the rest of the season. I personally think we'll see at least 5-8 more named storms before the season ends.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

JB has hope for next 3 years!!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

Downturn of total number of storms not the end of the burst. Wildfires, Increase Atlantic activity, hotter summers coming 2015-2017