ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[tolakram]

92L model runs and related discussion go here.

[SFLcane]

18z plots...

[tolakram]

12Z ECMWF (running now) does have something at 48 hours but drops it at 72 hours.

[jlauderdal]

12Z ECMWF (running now) does have something at 48 hours but drops it at 72 hours.

been consistently weak...will go with that until proven wrong...lets see what it does in 12 hours on next run

[Blown Away]

12Z ECMWF (running now) does have something at 48 hours but drops it at 72 hours.

been consistently weak...will go with that until proven wrong...lets see what it does in 12 hours on next run

Gotta go with the Euro champ! Maybe a nice breezy day in SFL!! I'll take that... If the BAMS is right, maybe I'll see a nice naked LLC swirl go over Hobe Sound??

[gatorcane]

Be careful on relying on the models on situations like this - they have shown before they can miss quick forming homebrew systems like we may have on our hands here.

[jhpigott]

Be careful on relying on the models on situations like this - they have shown before they can miss quick forming homebrew systems like we may have on our hands here.

particularly those with small circulations.

[Nimbus]

They only have 36 to 48 hours to send recon and figure out how much it is going to strengthen.
Initialization and track won't be too tough now.
Big difference in Cat 1 evac VS tropical storm though.

[jlauderdal]

12Z ECMWF (running now) does have something at 48 hours but drops it at 72 hours.

been consistently weak...will go with that until proven wrong...lets see what it does in 12 hours on next run

Gotta go with the Euro champ! Maybe a nice breezy day in SFL!! I'll take that... If the BAMS is right, maybe I'll see a nice naked LLC swirl go over Hobe Sound??

for sure....if euro shows something im in otherwise its more nonsense from the other solutions

[SFLcane]

[CrazyC83]

It looks, at least from my analysis, that if a storm forms there, steering would be erratic, and it would be not moving much at all...the ridge is blocking any path north, with nothing really to push it west either.

[Alyono]

If this develops, it will likely occur in the Gulf. However, there is a chance it could before reaching Florida given how organized it is

[ronjon]

They only have 36 to 48 hours to send recon and figure out how much it is going to strengthen.
Initialization and track won't be too tough now.
Big difference in Cat 1 evac VS tropical storm though.

Don't forget Nimbus, we have island observations and buoy's so while RECON is desirable, we can get a good handle on strength from the OBS.

[ronjon]

18z BAMM track looks very similar to this mornings CMC run.

[gatorcane]

It's interesting that some of the models show it (weak low pressure) moving NW slowing down then turning and moving WSW over South Florida as it feels the ridge building to the north.

[CaneCurious]

It's interesting that some of the models show it (weak low pressure) moving NW slowing down then turning and moving WSW over South Florida as it feels the ridge building to the north.

Didn't Katrina do just that?

[northjaxpro]

It appears that 92L definitely has a nice spin and convection is trying to build this afternoon. I will await the later runs from EURO and GFS. However, this is getting a bit more interesting with 92L and there is a possibility it could attain TS strength within the next couple of days. It is a small system, but a potential to spin up and develop quickly, especially given the area it is in right now.

[Hammy]

Gotta go with the Euro champ! Maybe a nice breezy day in SFL!! I'll take that... If the BAMS is right, maybe I'll see a nice naked LLC swirl go over Hobe Sound??

Euro has proven just as useless as the rest of the models as far as genesis goes, as it often fails to develop things that form, and meanwhile kept showing hurricanes that never happen. It's all pretty much wait and see at this point, and really only if something forms can the models can be looked to for track guidance.

[gatorcane]

GFS shows a small anticyclone right on top of this system - excellent for development:

[blp]

The Euro did show this for a few runs and the GFS to a much lesser degree. You have to wonder if being such a small circulation if they are having trouble handling its strength which would not be a surprise.