ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tolakram]

Original Discussion: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116721&hilit=

Up on the NRL now.

AL, 92, 2014090912, , BEST, 0, 238N, 737W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014090918, , BEST, 0, 246N, 741W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014091000, , BEST, 0, 252N, 744W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014091006, , BEST, 0, 257N, 747W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014091012, , BEST, 0, 262N, 751W, 20, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2014091018, , BEST, 0, 266N, 756W, 20, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[gatorcane]

Saved image, looking better rather quickly. Didn't expect this to be honest...

[BigA]

From what I see, most of the classic conditions for tropical cyclone formation are fairly favorable right now. Shear is low as long as the system doesn't drift north of 28N, and SSTs/heat potential are obviously quite high. The mid-levels also appear to be reasonably moist, looking at maps of relative humidity and total precipitable water. I think this thing has a shot, though I'd like to see more than the GEM (CMC) predicting development before I get too bullish.

[tolakram]

Someone have a link to the best track so I can verify this is active?

edit: got it: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[jhpigott]

Weren't some model runs from yesterday indicating a weak low moving WSW from this position across S. FL?

[jlauderdal]

Weren't some model runs from yesterday indicating a weak low moving WSW from this position across S. FL?

yep

[cycloneye]

Someone have a link to the best track so I can verify this is active?

Very active Mark.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[gatorcane]

I wonder what the NHC says in 15 minutes given this relatively quick increase in organization....

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[SFLcane]

wow.. interesting

models 12z general indicate westward track towards sfl..

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[gatorcane]

Wow thought NHC would say more than that. Maybe they are punting and will wait until the next advisory. Looks a lot more than just disorganized showers and a trough now.

[SFLcane]

At only 5-10 mph this thing will have plenty of time to do something if it wants to.

[jhpigott]

starting to see some more convective activity building up to the SE of the low level turning.

[tropicwatch]

Waiting on floater.

[jlauderdal]

wow.. interesting

models 12z general indicate westward track towards sfl..

that isnt anything new..the track was always in a westerly direction

[gatorcane]

Another link to watch the progression of this invest:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... x.DAY.jpg&

[SFLcane]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Bahamas-vis-12

[jhpigott]

These should be a couple of good radars to watch the next couple of days to follow 92L


Miami long range: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

SFWMD radar: http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... s%20(radar)

[SFLcane]

‏@MichaelRLowry · 22m
It's getting that look. I'll have your tropical updates all afternoon and evening on @weatherchannel